Race on to join Lancs in CB40 semis

After meandering along for nearly four months, the CB40 is finally nearing the semi-finals. Only the top side of the three seven-team groups is guaranteed to qualify, while the best runner-up also progresses.

Lancashire are the one county assured of qualification. The most likely scenario is that Hampshire, Kent and either Sussex or Warwickshire will also consist the semi-finals, although there is much still to be decided.

Here is how the groups are shaping up:

Lancashire are the only side who have already qualified for the semi-final stage, having won eight of their ten games. If they win at either Chelmsford or New Road, they will be guaranteed a home semi-final.

Their success has been built around their bowling attack. Gary Keedy and Ajmal Shazhad have claimed 17 wickets each, while Stephen Moore's six half-centuries have underpinned their batting.

No other side can qualify, even as a best runner-up: Middlesex are second but they cannot match Warwickshire's number of victories in Group C, because victories are used as the tie-breaker between runners-up.

Netherlands's initial success - they won five of their first six matches - caught attention, but their form has since subsided.

This is the most complicated group, with three sides retaining hopes of qualification as winners. Hampshire, with Michael Carberry and James Vince consistent run-scorers, lead with 15 points, but face a tricky final game at Chester-le-Street, where Phil Mustard has smashed centuries in his last two CB40 games. If Hampshire lose, they will need neither Warwickshire nor Kent to gain any more points.

Despite grim form with the bat - top run-scorer Steven Davies averages under 28 - Surrey also retain an outside chance of qualification, owing to the quality of their spin attack. But they must win both their final two games, at home to Glamorgan in tomorrow's Tom Maynard Celebration game and then at Taunton.

Somerset, led by Peter Trego's all-round contribution, also have unconvincing qualification hopes - which is remarkable considering they picked up only one point (from a washout with Glamorgan) from their first five games.

If Hampshire win their final game, the task for Somerset and Surrey becomes harder. They would then require Kent to lose both their remaining games and Warwickshire to lose their final one to have a chance of qualification.

Three sides can still claim top spot in this group, which is by far the most likely to be the source of the best runner-up.

Sussex, for whom seamers Chris Liddle and Amjad Khan have been outstanding, are currently top with 16 points, despite the frustration of four washouts.

They face a crunch match at Canterbury, the winner of whom is certain to progress to the semi-finals. But if Sussex lose, then would be out unless Warwickshire also lost.

Kent's mix of youth (Matt Coles and Sam Bilings) and experience (Darren Stevens and James Tredwell) has been formidable, with six wins and only one defeat (to the Unicorns) so far.

One more victory - either against Yorkshire on Wednesday or Sussex on Monday, both of which are at Canterbury - will almost guarantee them qualification, because their run rate is by far the best of all sides who could end up on 17 points.

Should Kent win both games they are guaranteed to be top, and with a home semi-final; if they lose both they are certainly out.

If Warwickshire, whose seven wins have been built on a powerful seam attack, win their final game, against Yorkshire at Scarborough, they will qualify - unless Kent beat Yorkshire and Sussex beat Kent, because no other second-placed side would be able to get up to 17 points.

Should they lose, they would probably be out - they would need Kent to suffer two heavy defeats, and also for runners-up in other groups to suffer dips in their run-rate.

It could not be simpler.