Djokovic and Dementieva will take some beating

The US Open begins in New York on Monday, which means the Rafael Nadal-Roger Federer show rolls on, albeit with Novak Djokovic and perhaps Andy Murray thrown in with a real chance to win.

For the first time in any grand slam event except the French Open for about four years, Federer is not the favourite to win. That honour goes to Nadal, who has won the French Open, Wimbledon and Olympics this year and snatched the world No 1 spot from Federer.

Now Nadal is more than decent on hard courts, but he has yet to go beyond the quarter-finals in New York and there is no question that the effect of the courts on his knees, which remain a problem, makes it tough for him to win it.

That said, no one could possibly have more confidence than Nadal right now, and he is the man to beat. He has a good draw - Federer and Djokovic are in the other half, so the top price of 6-4 could actually be on the generous side. Beating Rafa over five sets is horrendously difficult.

Federer is a massive price, on past form, at 10/3. The man has won 12 grand slam titles and is still 27, but he has been badly shaken by losing the No 1 spot to Nadal, and especially by his Wimbledon defeat by the Spaniard. This year, he has lost to a bunch of players he would never even have considered as threats before and is vulnerable.

He does have a good draw, though, and I would not put anyone off him altogether. However, if he ends up playing Djokovic in the semis, as he should, then I would side with the Serb, himself a 7/2 shot and someone for whom confidence has never been lacking.

After a mid-season dip, the man who won his first grand-slam title in Australia in January, on hard courts, believes he is the best player on the surface and I am inclined to believe him. With that winning experience under his belt, he is, for me, the man who should win this title.

That said, I expect a big performance from Briton Andy Murray too. The 21-year-old showed he has taken another step up by winning the Masters Series event in Cincinnati, and he is raring to go. I can see him making the semis and playing Nadal, which at least gives him a chance of making his first final.

As for the women, with no Justine Henin (retired) and Maria Sharapova (injured) there is no clear favourite. A case can be made for any one of about eight players taking the title, from top seed Ana Ivanovic to Russian Dinara Safina.

Ivanovic has an injury doubt over her thumb, though, while Jelena Jankovic is also perhaps not 100 percent fit. The Williams sisters could meet in the quarters, so that counts one of them out, and at the moment I would go for Serena above Venus.

While Venus seems able to win Wimbledon every year, if she is up for it, she has not won another grand slam title for years, and Serena will be seething after losing to her at Wimbledon this summer.

But the big challenge could come from the Russians - Svetlana Kuznetsova, Elena Dementieva and Dinara Safina. Kuznetsova is always dangerous, especially as a former champion, but Dementieva could be the one to watch.

The fifth seed is riding high after winning the Olympics - finally a big win after years of trying - and her troublesome serve is seemingly much improved. If she has recovered from the exertions in Beijing, then she will be a massive danger.

And Safina, who is playing the tennis of her life, should not be underestimated. Though her temperament remains suspect, she is confident and in the kind of form that makes her a threat at every event she plays.