England or Pakistan? It's a toss up

If it is a World Cup, it seems only right that each game should be treated as a cup-tie. That certainly is the way that England are having to approach every match they play in the tournament after forfeiting the points against Zimbabwe.

Their next hurdle in the do-or-die campaign is against Pakistan at the scenic Newlands ground in Cape Town under lights, but England will have little opportunity to admire the setting. They would much prefer to maintain their current position in Group A so they can return to play a Super Six match at the same venue in two week's time.

Even before all the political wrangling began and they lost those four points to Zimbabwe in a court room rather than on the field, England knew that this match was going to be a defining moment in their World Cup. A look at the draw suggested that Australia would head the group to leave England, India and Pakistan fighting for the last two qualifying spots. Now Zimbabwe have been thrown into that equation and England are playing catch-up.

They started well with a pretty ruthless defeat of the Netherlands, but then had a somewhat pedestrian win against Namibia. From an English point of view, not too much should be read into that, for there was not the intensity associated with a major match and England missed the driving presence of their captain, Nasser Hussain.

Hussain was suffering from a stiff neck, which had eased enough for him to take part in today's practice session. That has got to be a good sign, for while his deputy, Alec Stewart, did a sound job in his place it was no more than that.

It was only on the morning of the match that Stewart was asked to do the job, despite the fact that Marcus Trescothick is officially vice-captain. The management's decision to opt for the tried and trusted Stewart rather than an inexperienced Trescothick initiated some feverish writing among those members of the press who specialise in such stories.

Trescothick himself was expecting to get the call if his captain was unfit, but he has not enjoyed a happy time with his batting this winter and it appears that this fact weighed heavily in the debate. Leave the Somerset man to get his own game in order before adding to his workload was the theory. Of course, there is always the view that if he had something else about which to think he might have just gone out and smashed the thing rather than worrying how he was going to do so. That was not the chosen option.

If Hussain is fit, it would make sense for his replacement in the side, Ronnie Irani, to drop out. However, England selection is never straightforward. Left-arm spinning all-rounder Ian Blackwell tweaked his back in the Namibia match and while he took part in practice, he did not appear to enjoy total freedom of movement and scans have proved to be inconclusive.

If Blackwell is unfit, a like-for-like replacement would be Ashley Giles. He is just recovering from tonsillitis and does not offer the same potential for the valuable runs down the order as either Blackwell or Irani. Having said that, Giles has established himself as England's first-choice spinner and can be relied upon to offer ten overs of control for his captain.

As far as Pakistan are concerned, the match takes on scarcely less importance than it does for England. They would have been disappointed to have had Australia in trouble in the opening match of their campaign and then losing by 82 runs in Johannesburg. They then demolished Namibia in a way that England failed to.

In both cases it was their fast bowling pair of Wasim Akram and Shoaib Akhtar that did the damage and this looks to be the key to this match. England enjoy steady rather than destructive bowlers while Pakistan have potential match-winners in Wasim, Shoaib, Waqar Younis and Saqlain Mushtaq.

Pakistan's batsmen have yet to convince in the tournament but, like the team as a whole, they ooze talent. The team has the potential to beat any other side in the world. It also has the ability to under-perform woefully.

So much could depend on the toss. Unless there is undue moisture in the pitch at the start, the captain favoured by the coin will bat first and leave the opposition to chase a total under the Cape Town lights. That is never an easy proposition.

As for history, that is all in favour of Pakistan. They have not lost to England in the World Cup since 1983 - a record that encompasses five matches including the 1992 final in Melbourne. England would certainly have broken that sequence in a group match in 1992 had not the weather intervened, but that is scant consolation. On the other hand, in 49 one-day international meetings in total, England have won 28 to Pakistan's 20 victories.

It all adds up to a fascinating encounter between two evenly matched sides. It must be hoped that conditions allow for both sides to play to potential. If they do, it is likely to be a desperately close-run thing.