Going through the list of teams fancied by the bookies to win the ICC
Champions Trophy, I was slightly taken aback to see India third in the
list. They are ranked just behind prohibitive favourites Australia and
South Africa in the list of those fancied to take the trophy - and
ahead of hosts Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and well ahead of England, New
Zealand, West Indies and Zimbabwe.
One more major factor has to be kept in mind while analysing India's
chances and that is that they are in a group in which no team is a
pushover. In each of the three other pools, there is at least one team
that can be rated as being there just to fill the numbers. India has
England and Zimbabwe in their group and neither of them can be
regarded as no-hopers.
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Capable as the Indian team undoubtedly is, I wish I could share the
optimism of the bookies. Evidently, the fine showing in England capped
by the triumph in the NatWest series has influenced their choice
somewhat. But while the display in the NatWest competition was really
commendable, especially the manner in which the Indians won the title
clash against England, it certainly does not constitute a major
triumph.
Come to think of it, when did India last notch up a major title
victory? Not one really, since the outstanding double of the World Cup
and the World Championship of Cricket triumphs, almost two decades
ago.
The Indian team frequently acquires this irritating habit of promising
more than they deliver, of not playing up to potential, of faltering
at the final hurdle. Like they did in the last Champions Trophy at
Nairobi when after successive victories over Australia and South
Africa, they went down to New Zealand in the final. It is more
probable, then, that India's overall performance in the tournament
might have something to do with the bookies line of thinking, for in
the inaugural year of the competition in 1998, India defeated
Australia before losing to West Indies in the penultimate round.
Sure, on potential, the Indian team has it in them to win the
Champions Trophy and other limited-overs competitions. With arguably
the best batting line-up in the world, including unarguably the best
player in the game today, the Indians should be making mountains of
runs. Unfortunately, this is not always the case.
And, then, there is the problem with the bowling. Sure, the weakness
in this department may not be as palpable on the sub-continent as when
it is exposed in England, Australia, South Africa or the West Indies.
Again the paucity may not be as pronounced in the limited-overs game
as it is in Test cricket. But there is no way one can argue that it is
a strong attack. Also perennial problems like poor fielding and poor
running between wickets are always there, though, of late, thanks to
the induction of youth, there has admittedly been some improvement.
One more major factor has to be kept in mind while analysing India's
chances and that is that they are in a group in which no team is a
pushover. In each of the three other pools, there is at least one team
that can be rated as being there just to fill the numbers. India has
England and Zimbabwe in their group and neither of them can be
regarded as no-hopers.
In other groups, it is always going to be more or less a straight
fight between Australia and New Zealand, West Indies and South Africa
and Sri Lanka and Pakistan (which the hosts have already won) to enter
the semifinals. In Pool two, which is India's group, all three teams
have a realistic chance of qualifying for the penultimate round.
One victory does not guarantee them a place in the knock-out stage
while one defeat does not mean that the team is knocked out. It
certainly is the most intriguing group in the competition. On present
form, there is no reason why India should not beat England and
Zimbabwe, particularly on sub-continent pitches. But one-day cricket
is all about having one good game or one bad game on the day. India
will have to be wary and cannot afford to be complacent on the basis
of their good record against both the countries at home, or in
conditions very close to home.