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Stats Analysis

Nicholas Pooran makes the most of run-out reprieve

According to ESPNcricinfo's Luck Index, Delhi Capitals would have won the game had Rishabh Pant effected the run-out in the eighth over

7.5 Ashwin to Pooran, 1 run, nearly another run-out. This time Maxwell sends him back. This is to the right of short cover, so I think the single is on if you set off immediately. Maxwell doesn't. Pooran is gone for all money, but the throw is wide. Pant dives to take it one-handed and flick it in the same motion. He misses the stumps, and they take the overthrow
Nicholas Pooran's 28-ball 53 was the key contribution in Kings XI Punjab's third successive win, but according to ESPNcricinfo's Luck Index, the result would have gone the other way had Rishabh Pant effected that run-out off the penultimate ball of the eighth over. Pooran had already been involved in Mayank Agarwal's run-out earlier in the innings - though that was probably because Agarwal didn't respond to what was a legitimate call for a single - but here, when Glenn Maxwell refused the call, Pooran was well short of the crease and should have been out.
His dismissal then would have reduced Kings XI to 70 for 4 in the eighth, with not too many batsmen in the hutch. As it turned out, Pant's flick missed the stumps, the batsmen ran an overthrow, and Pooran then made the most of that reprieve, slamming 42 off his next 19 deliveries. By the time he finally got out, Kings XI had moved along to 125 in the 13th over, and the required run-rate had dropped to less than a run a ball.
According to Luck Index, Kings XI would have scored 23 runs fewer had Pooran been out in the eighth over, and Delhi Capitals would have won the match. This calculation is done by an algorithm which distributes those 19 extra balls that Pooran faced, among the batsmen who remained unbeaten, and if necessary, those who didn't bat in the innings. (This calculation takes into account the expected balls that each batsman is likely to play, based on their quality.) Considering that Kings XI didn't have much batting firepower after Deepak Hooda and Jimmy Neesham, it is fair to assume that the other batsmen wouldn't managed these runs. That theory is further reinforced by Kings XI's skittish approach to the final overs throughout the tournament.
Delhi Capitals will be ruing that missed chance, but for the tournament itself, this result is a good one, and keeps more teams in the hunt for the playoffs, and the top two positions.