New Zealand give themselves a chance

New Zealand batted stoutly on day four of the third and final Test to at least give themselves a chance to save the match, but with one day still to go, India remain in pole position and it is asking an awful lot for the home side to bat through three more sessions.

On paper, with six wickets in hand, they could well do it but it's hard to overstate the mental effort that batting through two days requires of a team, of every single individual.

New Zealand do bat quite a long way down - Daniel Vettori can stick around with the best of them - but one or two early wickets on Tuesday and the match could be over by lunch.

Bet365 make India 4/6 now to go on to win it and that is a hugely tempting price, for the reasons already given. Ok, so they have already won the series (barring New Zealand bashing another 450 on the final day) but another victory would make their first series triumph in New Zealand all the sweeter.

New Zealand are 100/1 while the draw is 11/10. It can rain, of course, in this part of the world, but the forecast seems good enough and at 4/6 India are, quite honestly, a great price, for if New Zealand manage to bat through, it would be one of the best escapes of all time.

Original preview
India fought their way to a draw in the second Test and remain in pole position to win the series by avoiding defeat in the third and final match, beginning on Thursday in Wellington. New Zealand are up against it, but they did beat India there in 2002, so it's not over yet.

India are, however, the better side, and I still can't see them being bowled out twice to give New Zealand the win they need. Bet365 make India 21/20, the draw 11/8 and a home win as big as 5/1.

The weather could play a big factor in Wellington, as it often does, so check the forecast and if I were you, I would wait until the last minute before parting with your cash.

Interestingly. 17 of the past 20 Tests there have produced a result. New Zealand have won three of the past five matches, but one of them was against Bangladesh, which barely counts. The last time they beat one of Australia, England, South Africa and India was back in 2002, when they triumphed over India.

As we have discussed on a couple of occasions in this series, though, the past meetings between the two hold little weight, to my mind at least. India used to be an awful team on their travels but they are now confident that they can win anywhere, and having taken the opener. they stand well-placed for their first series win in New Zealand.

With the exception of Virender Sehwag, all of India's batsmen have been on song in this series, so it would be no surprise if he chooses Wellington to make a statement of his own. Bet365 are clearly wary, for they make him the 3/1 favourite to top-score for India in their first innings. He missed out there in 2002 but he looks ready to cut loose.

Sachin Tendulkar is 7/2, with Gautam Gambhir 4/1 and Rahul Dravid 9/2. VV Laxman is 11/2, Yuvraj Singh 7/1 and MS Dhoni 8/1.

For New Zealand, Ross Taylor is 3/1 and Jesse Ryder 7/2. The pair are the two class batsmen in their side and both are proving to have excellent temperaments. Ryder has yet to bat at the Basin Reserve, but Taylor scored 108 runs in his two innings there.

Behind them, Daniel Flynn and Jamie How are each 9/2, while McIntosh is 5/1, Guptill 11/2 and the ever-dangerous McCullum the same price, with Daniel Vettori 16/1.

I think that after their let-off in Napier, India's focus will be back to where it was in the opener, so at 21/20, they look a decent bet, while Sehwag may be feeling left out and could be dangerous.