Match Analysis

New Zealand's opportunity to break an unwelcome pattern

Like the first two Tests, Australia's batsmen dominated for five sessions. But there's one difference this time: NZ still have ten wickets in hand

Rinse and repeat (almost).
If anyone had the feeling they had been here before, they would not have been mistaken. Five sessions of batting have put Australia into a position from where they are almost unbeatable, leaving New Zealand trying to salvage a draw.
It's been almost uncanny how similar the early stages of the first three Tests have played out. Australia's first innings in Perth and Sydney finishing at tea and just a little bit later in Melbourne. Even the way New Zealand gamely hung to their task in the field and gained late rewards followed a pattern: in the three Tests Australia have lost 4 for 53, 5 for 33 and 5 for 44 to close their innings.
As previously, Neil Wagner added wickets he thoroughly deserved, while on this occasion Todd Astle's perseverance - coupled with some nice flight and turn - brought two late scalps including the double-centurion Marnus Labuschagne. They were the fifth and sixth wickets of Astle's Test career which began back in 2012 but has so far tallied just five matches. New Zealand have won the previous four games, but it would take something quite special for that to continue here.
This time, though, there was something different to the opening two Tests. There was no early loss of wickets as Tom Latham and Tom Blundell - the latter the find of the tour for New Zealand - held on gamely in the final session. Luck may have gone their way, too, when replays appeared to show a small hotspot on Blundell's outside edge after Australia had reviewed. "I think James Pattinson in the circle said there was a little spot, he spotted it," Labuschagne said.
Speaking on SEN radio earlier in the day, Cricket Australia chief executive Kevin Roberts had it put to him that Australia's dominance had not been great for the summer of cricket in terms of the one-sided nature of the contests. He carefully navigated the line he needed to and said that the team's success had "exceeded expectations", assessing that Pakistan would have been disappointed with their performances and offering sympathy for New Zealand's plight in this final Test as they were hit by illness.
New Zealand's camp had continued to resemble a sick bay on the second morning when Jeet Raval succumbed to the virus that ruled out Kane Williamson, Henry Nicholls and Mitchell Santner, spending most of the first session lying on the physio bench, while Matt Henry was diagnosed with a broken thumb but was able to continue bowling. To have their best day of the series - restricting Australia to 7 for 171 and not losing a wicket - even if that judgement is made from a low base is a commendable effort.
"For us it was an opportunity to say there's nothing to lose," Astle said after the day's play. "There's guys who've been ill and little injuries and niggles but it's a chance to almost galvanise us and fight for each other. The pattern has been that they've batted well that first day and it's about trying to hang in there and know our fight and our level of commitment to each other has been second to none so we needed to make sure we could believe that.
"We had a really good day and we haven't had a whole heap of that. They scored 170 for 7 and to have both openers in at the end of the day was a good win for us."
The truth, however, is that by quite some distance New Zealand have not lived up to their billing as the prime contest of the season. By not crossing 200 in their first three innings of the series they basically handed it to Australia on a plate. The bowling has always been honest, and at times unlucky - they have held Australia to 2.99 runs per over in the series - although they have lacked a cutting edge.
In such situations - and they are far from the first touring side to find themselves in such chaos - all a team can do is to try and show their resolve. They set the tone with a wicket in the opening over when Will Somerville removed Matthew Wade and never shirked from their task as the temperature rose towards 40C degrees. Still, without Williamson and Nicholls, plus with Raval struggling - although he was ready to come in at No. 3 on the second evening - it remains a huge task for New Zealand to take anything on a pitch taking turn.
"That's the key, bat as long as possible this innings and make the Aussie bowlers come back," Astle said. "They haven't had to do that in this series so for us it's about keeping them out there and make them ask questions for a long period of time. Hopefully we can cash in once they've bowled long spells."
New Zealand have three days left to stop Australia producing another repeat performance.

Andrew McGlashan is a deputy editor at ESPNcricinfo