ODI Strike Rates - a fresh look (and a preview of Test Bowler Analysis)

Since I need some time to complete the Test Bowler Analysis, I have come out with an article on ODI Strike Rates. What started as an interim article has turned out to be a very interesting one.

Whenever we compare measures across years we always have problems since the relevant period strategies, pitch/ground conditions, quality of bowling (or batting), prevailing laws etc vary significantly. Shahid Afridi's 100+% strike rate cannot be blindly compared to Viv Richards' sub-90 strike rate since everything has changed over the years.

I have created a new factor comparing the Batsman career strike rate with the rest of the team's strike rate, in the matches played by the batsman. The great thing with this measure is that this stands firm across decades, across different types of pitches/conditions and across different types of bowling skills and strategies.

If the average scoring rate of the period was way below currently acceptable values, no problem, this condition applies to all the players in that match. Was the pitch unplayable, no problem, this condition applies to all the players in that match. Was the pitch a belter, no problem. Were the grounds small or huge, no problems. Was there a devastating bowling attack, no problem. Was it the East African or Canada bowling attack, no problem, all should have helped themselves to the buffet lunch. And so on. Our comparison applies only to matches played by the batsman so these are completely valid.

The analysis has also evolved. My first idea was to compare the batsman's career strike rate to the team's overall strike rate. Then I changed to the concerned match strike rate of the team but this had an element of overlap since the player's own performance is embedded in the team's performance. Finally I came out with the idea of taking into account the other players' strike rates. This has worked out very well.

Now let us look at the tables. The criteria is that the concerned batsman should have scored a minmum of 2000 ODI runs. Even this means that there is a sample size of 146 batsmen. This table is current upto match no. 2855, the fourth ODI between West Indies and India.

Table of Career strike rates to Concerned match team strike rates

SNo Batsman           Cty Mat  Runs Balls  S/R OBRuns OBBalls   S/R  BSRF

1.Shahid Afridi     Pak 276  5642  5083 1.110  52937  65461 0.809 137.3%
2.Kapil Dev N       Ind 225  3783  3979 0.951  35676  49298 0.724 131.3%
3.Powell R.L        Win 108  2085  2157 0.967  18941  24678 0.768 125.9%
4.Richards I.V.A    Win 187  6721  7451 0.902  28195  38757 0.727 124.1%
5.Sehwag V          Ind 205  6592  6472 1.019  40230  46569 0.864 117.9%
6.Wasim Akram       Pak 356  3717  4224 0.880  55541  73789 0.753 116.9%
7.Jayasuriya S.T    Slk 431 13151 14443 0.911  77876  97706 0.797 114.2%
8.Klusener L        Saf 171  3576  3978 0.899  27976  35034 0.799 112.6%
9.Gilchrist A.C     Aus 287  9619  9923 0.969  56114  64341 0.872 111.1%
10.Flintoff A        Eng 141  3393  3819 0.888  22790  28419 0.802 110.8%
11.Chappell G.S      Aus  74  2331  3088 0.755  11416  16449 0.694 108.8%
12.Pollock S.M       Saf 303  3519  4059 0.867  43168  54126 0.798 108.7%
13.Cairns C.L        Nzl 215  4950  5879 0.842  36554  47167 0.775 108.6%
14.Zaheer Abbas      Pak  62  2572  3216 0.800   9520  12863 0.740 108.1%
15.Tikolo S.O        Ken 117  3213  4214 0.762  18721  26291 0.712 107.1%
16.Gower D.I         Eng 114  3170  4222 0.751  19486  27765 0.702 107.0%
17.McCullum B.B      Nzl 153  2984  3353 0.890  24937  29918 0.834 106.8%
18.Pietersen K.P     Eng  92  3127  3576 0.874  15244  18585 0.820 106.6%
19.Botham I.T        Eng 116  2113  2816 0.750  19731  27866 0.708 106.0%
20.de Silva P.A      Slk 308  9284 11497 0.808  51495  67537 0.762 105.9%
21.Rhodes J.N        Saf 245  5935  7310 0.812  42228  54993 0.768 105.7%
22.Trescothick M.E   Eng 123  4335  5086 0.852  21661  26647 0.813 104.9%
23.Symonds A         Aus 198  5088  5504 0.924  34568  39054 0.885 104.4%
24.Tendulkar S.R     Ind 425 16684 19481 0.856  76047  92266 0.824 103.9%
25.Moin Khan         Pak 219  3266  4011 0.814  37111  47228 0.786 103.6%
...
40.Gibbs H.H         Saf 244  8038  9647 0.833  45073  54128 0.833 100.0%
...
142.Yasir Hameed      Pak  56  2028  3029 0.670  11363  12777 0.889  75.3%
143.Wessels K.C       Saf 109  3367  6057 0.556  16626  22456 0.740  75.1%
144.Tillakaratne H.P  Slk 200  3789  6544 0.579  31601  39951 0.791  73.2%
145.Mudassar Nazar    Pak 122  2653  5067 0.524  19282  25900 0.744  70.3%
146.Marsh G.R         Aus 117  4357  7721 0.564  20183  24649 0.819  68.9%

Note: The OB figures reflect the aggregate of the runs/balls of the other batsmen who batted in all the innings in which the concerned batsman has batted. If the concerned batsman did not bat at all, the figures for that innings are not included in the aggregate.

As expected Shahid Afridi is at the top. He has out-scored his team-mates by an amazing margin of 37.3% although his team-mates themselves score at a fair clip, 80.9. This underscores his value to the team. He outperforms his team-mates by such a wide margin, I fail to understand how the selectors could ever drop him, I am not even referring to his bowling.

Look at the second entry, also a proof that this measure cuts across years with ease. Kapil Dev has outperformed his team-mates by over 26%. His team-mates have been sluggish. However this understandable since those were the times. It was outstanding performance by Kapil Dev to score at a great strike rate of over 90% during those days when 70 was the norm.

Third player in the table is Ricardo Powell, who has out-scored his team-mates by over 25%. Whatever happened to Powell.

Now comes two interesting entries. Viv Richards' value to his team cannot be exemplified more than by this measure. He has outscored his team-mates by over 21%, day in and day out. This, coupled by the achievements of those mean and fiery fast men, was primarily responsible for the West Indian successes of the 1970s/80s.

Then comes the modern great, Sehwag. His team, India itself, has scored at a pretty good rate, 86.4. Sehwag has still managed to outscore his team-mates by 18%. This single factor has been one of the main reasons for the Indian team's recent successes.

In the next 5 places we have Wasim Akram, Jayasuriya, Kluesener, Gilchrist and Flintoff who have all outscored their team-mates by over 10%. All are great strikers.

Tendulkar has managed to outscore his team-mates by around 4%, mainly because the rest of the team, with a number of attacking batsmen, including Sehwag, Yuvraj et al, have scored at a good rate of 82.4. But his contributions, in the opening position, have been outstanding. Note the relatively lower placement of Symonds, just over 4%, indicating, a la Tendulkar, the higher scoring rate of his team-mates, in this case a very high 88.5.

Gibbs is the only batsman who has almost exactly mirrored his team-mates' achievements.

At the other hand we have mostly defensive batsmen of olden years, led by Geoff Marsh whose team-mates have outscored him by over 30%. The only modern batsman is Yasser Hameed who has scored at an amazing 25% below his team-mates, accepting that this group includes Afridi.

To view the complete list, please click here.

The above table includes the team extras in the runs scored. Thus the rest-of-the-team strike rates is slightly higher. I have given below the same table, this time excluding the team extras. No major changes.

SNo Batsman           Cty Mat  Runs Balls  S/R OBRuns OBBalls   S/R  BSRF

1.Shahid Afridi Pak 276 5642 5083 1.110 49132 65461 0.751 147.9% 2.Kapil Dev N Ind 225 3783 3979 0.951 32898 49298 0.667 142.5% 3.Powell R.L Win 108 2085 2157 0.967 17332 24678 0.702 137.6% 4.Richards I.V.A Win 187 6721 7451 0.902 25859 38757 0.667 135.2% 5.Sehwag V Ind 205 6592 6472 1.019 37006 46569 0.795 128.2% 6.Wasim Akram Pak 356 3717 4224 0.880 51127 73789 0.693 127.0% 7.Jayasuriya S.T Slk 431 13151 14443 0.911 70806 97706 0.725 125.6% 8.Klusener L Saf 171 3576 3978 0.899 26076 35034 0.744 120.8% 9.Flintoff A Eng 141 3393 3819 0.888 20940 28419 0.737 120.6% 10.Gilchrist A.C Aus 287 9619 9923 0.969 52125 64341 0.810 119.7% 11.Tikolo S.O Ken 117 3213 4214 0.762 16758 26291 0.637 119.6% 12.Cairns C.L Nzl 215 4950 5879 0.842 33299 47167 0.706 119.3% 13.Zaheer Abbas Pak 62 2572 3216 0.800 8669 12863 0.674 118.7% 14.Chappell G.S Aus 74 2331 3088 0.755 10480 16449 0.637 118.5% 15.de Silva P.A Slk 308 9284 11497 0.808 46393 67537 0.687 117.6% 16.Gower D.I Eng 114 3170 4222 0.751 17751 27765 0.639 117.4% 17.McCullum B.B Nzl 153 2984 3353 0.890 22785 29918 0.762 116.9% 18.Botham I.T Eng 116 2113 2816 0.750 17981 27866 0.645 116.3% 19.Pollock S.M Saf 303 3519 4059 0.867 40335 54126 0.745 116.3% 20.Pietersen K.P Eng 92 3127 3576 0.874 14069 18585 0.757 115.5% 21.Trescothick M.E Eng 123 4335 5086 0.852 19830 26647 0.744 114.5% 22.Lamb A.J Eng 122 4010 5290 0.758 19026 28691 0.663 114.3% 23.Rhodes J.N Saf 245 5935 7310 0.812 39173 54993 0.712 114.0% 24.Tendulkar S.R Ind 425 16684 19481 0.856 69447 92266 0.753 113.8% 25.Crowe M.D Nzl 143 4704 6464 0.728 20206 31581 0.640 113.7% ... 77.Inzamam-ul-Haq Pak 378 11739 15827 0.742 60323 81270 0.742 100.0% ... 142.Taylor M.A Aus 113 3514 5867 0.599 18912 25762 0.734 81.6% 143.Yasir Hameed Pak 56 2028 3029 0.670 10522 12777 0.824 81.3% 144.Tillakaratne H.P Slk 200 3789 6544 0.579 28664 39951 0.717 80.7% 145.Mudassar Nazar Pak 122 2653 5067 0.524 17685 25900 0.683 76.7% 146.Marsh G.R Aus 117 4357 7721 0.564 18347 24649 0.744 75.8%

Test Bowler Analysis

I have given below a brief write-up on the Test Bowler Analysis. If you want to send in your comments on this, please do so, as a separate comment, titling the same, "Test Bowler Analysis".

1. Period Separation: These periods have been identified with lot of thought and deliberation with inputs from a few interested readers. Many related factors have gone into this process. Separate tables will be prepared for different periods. I have considered, and rejected, a separation of Pace and Spin since there will be too many tables and we will not have the charm of a Murali/Warne vs Hadlee/Lillee comparison.

- The bowling era: 1877-1914 (134 Tests and 370 players)
- The batting era: 1920-1969 (535 Tests and 980 players)
- The balanced era: 1970-2009 (1251 Tests and 1220 players).

2. Match Performance: This is a very important aspect of any such analysis. Many readers have completely forgotten that this is not career-based and takes into account every ball bowled and wicket captured weighted by the match conditions and the opposition. Those who are shouting at the rooftops that the career-end figures are not favourable to one player over the other should take the trouble of understanding this aspect of analysis carefully. This will incorporate the following factors.

- Wickets captured (Base)
- Balls bowled (Base) - to recognize long spells
- Batsmen dismissed - based on his score at time of dismissal (Base)
- Overall quality of batting team - primarily top-7 batsmen
- Bowling accuracy - relative to the innings scoring rate
- Own team's bowling quality (to take care of very strong bowling sides)
- Match-related pitch characteristics
- Match situation (incl first day spinners' performances, defending low/high totals in innings 2, innings 3 situation, levels of fourth innings totals defended, win margins et al.
- Home/Away - incorporating relative team strengths
- Result - incorporating relative team strengths.

3. Career Achievements: This is an equally important aspect of any such analysis. It also encompasses aspects of bowling which do not require consideration of the match conditions or situation. The only longevity measure is the "Career wickets captured" measure with no more than a 10% weight. This will incorporate the following factors.

- Career Wickets captured
- Bowling Strike rate (BpW)
- Bowling accuracy (RpO)
- Average Quality of batsmen dismissed - based on CtD batting average
- Type of wickets captured - Top order / Middle order / Late order
- % of wickets with own efforts - Bowled/Lbw/C&b (Still undecided on this).

Once again reminding the readers to send separate comments on this topic.