Only a miracle can save Pakistan

The odds are stacked against Pakistan qualifying for the Super Six stage as Waqar Younis' men prepare to meet Zimbabwe in a must-win match at the Queen's Sports Club, Bulawayo.

The latest Points Table for Pool A shows that Australia and India are already through to the next stage, leaving Zimbabwe, England or Pakistan to battle it out for the remaining spot. Let us then discuss the possible scenarios.

If Zimbabwe were to beat Pakistan on March 4, the Lions of Harare will roar into the Super Six as the third qualifier. Zimbabwe will again benefit if rain washes away Wednesday's match, as the two points they earn in that situation will take them to 14 points and ahead of England.

Pakistan, meanwhile, can squeeze their way into the Super Six stage only if they recover from the psychological blow of the thrashing they took from India, and beat Zimbabwe. If they manage to do so, they will force a three-way tie on 12 points between the three aspirants for the third spot in Group A.

If that happens, each of the teams would have one win in the matches played among themselves: Zimbabwe won against England (forfeit), England beat Pakistan, and Pakistan would have beaten Zimbabwe.

The computers will now come into play, as NRR becomes the critical factor in deciding which team will make it to the Super Six.

If Zimbabwe loses to Pakistan, the African Lions' NRR will suffer. England, already ahead in that respect, will qualify. That is if Pakistan don't beat Zimbabwe by a margin huge enough to boost their current NRR (+0.2267) beyond England's (+0.8207).

It is very clear therefore that for Pakistan to escape elimination, they have to win, and win big. What exactly should the team do? Serious number-crunching generates the following table of requirements:

The targets for Pakistan to get could be in the ranges provided in Columns A and B of Table 1. Waqar's team must attain victory within the number of overs specified in Column C. The run-rates they would need to score at are provided in Columns D and E. For example, if Pakistan needs to win by scoring 51 runs (Col. A), they must do so within 9.4 overs (Col. C) at an average run-rate of 5.28 (Col. D) per over. If the target is the one at the higher end of the range (Col. B), they must attain it within the same 9.4 overs (Col. C) but scoring at a higher run-rate of 5.79 (Col.E).

A Pakistan's target -- Lower end of range (runs) B Pakistan's target -- Higher end of range (runs) C Pakistan must win within (overs) D Pakistan's reqd. run rate -- Lower end of range (avg. runs per over) E Pakistan's reqd. run rate - Higher end of range (avg. runs per over)
A	B	C	D	E
51	56	9.4	5.28	5.79
57	62	9.5	5.80	6.31
63	68	10.0	6.30	6.80
69	75	10.1	6.79	7.38
76	81	10.2	7.35	7.84
82	88	10.3	7.81	8.38
89	94	10.4	8.34	8.81
95	101	10.5	8.77	9.32
102	107	11.0	9.27	9.73
108	114	11.1	9.67	10.21
115	121	11.2	10.15	10.68
122	128	11.3	10.61	11.13
129	135	11.4	11.06	11.57
136	141	11.5	11.49	11.92
142	149	12.0	11.83	12.42
150	156	12.1	12.33	12.82
157	163	12.2	12.73	13.22
164	170	12.3	13.12	13.60
171	177	12.4	13.50	13.97
178	185	12.5	13.87	14.42
186	192	13.0	14.31	14.77
193	200	13.1	14.66	15.19
201	207	13.2	15.08	15.53
208	215	13.3	15.41	15.93
216	223	13.4	15.80	16.32
224	231	13.5	16.19	16.70
232	239	14.0	16.57	17.07
240	247	14.1	16.94	17.44
248	255	14.2	17.30	17.79
256	263	14.3	17.66	18.14
264	271	14.4	18.00	18.48
272	279	14.5	18.34	18.81
280	288	15.0	18.67	19.20
289	296	15.1	19.05	19.52
297	305	15.2	19.37	19.89
306	314	15.3	19.74	20.26
315	322	15.4	20.11	20.55
323	331	15.5	20.40	20.91

Pakistan's best bet, then, will be to win the toss, put the Zimbabweans in and bowl their opponents out for as lowly a total as possible, within 107 at the most, before reaching their target within 9.4 overs - 11 overs as the case may be.

Considering the fielding restrictions in the first 15 overs and the explosive batting of Saeed Anwar, Shahid Afridi and others in the Pakistan top order, this may be possible. What will also work to their advantage is the fact that with such a small target, losing wickets may not really matter.

But obviously, Zimbabwe's men are not going to roll over and play dead. They would also be fiercely competitive and looking to enter the Super Six. Thus, they may try to score as many runs as possible. And that is when Pakistan's position becomes increasingly hopeless. For instance, if Streak's unit were to bat anywhere near their potential and score 225, the Green Brigade must win within 13.5 overs, at an average of 16.27 an over - a task that can be considered close to impossible. Table 1 above shows how Pakistan's task becomes progressively hopeless as the target climbs from 226 to 323.

Pakistan's possible range of scores are set out in Columns A and B of Table 2, and their minimum required margin of victory is in Column C. All figures are in runs.

If Pakistan's batsmen wield the willow with power and panache, scoring 300, their bowlers must dismiss Zimbabwe for 112. A tall order, but within the realms of possibility for an attack regarded as among the best in the world. After all, Wasim and Waqar have over 900 wickets in ODIs, and the fearsome Shoaib is arguably the fastest in the world!

But if Waqar's men are below par and only score say 223, the bowler's will then face the herculean task of bowling the opposition out for 36, the lowest-ever total in ODIs.

Irrespective of what the weather-man says, or what the wicket looks like, these Tables, then, send out the loud and clear message that the captain winning the toss must have no hesitation in batting first at Bulawayo. As to whether Pakistan can rise like a Phoenix from the ashes of the heavy defeat inflicted by India at Centurion, we will have to wait till Wednesday to find out.