Pakistan must win big, Zimbabwe must just win

Mission impossible. That is virtually the story for Pakistan as they hope for a Super Six place in their impending match against Zimbabwe.

According to South African statistician Andrew Samson's calculations, unless Pakistan are good enough (and Zimbabwe are bad enough) to bowl Zimbabwe out for significantly under 100, Pakistan will need to score at a rate of at least ten runs an over to obtain a better run rate than England's. Or else they need to score at least 300 and bowl Zimbabwe out for little more than 100.

No, it is not quite impossible, and Pakistan, the wounded tiger, are in theory capable of doing just that. But they will need to find some unexpected unity of purpose and turn on their most brilliant performance to do so. They have done little since leaving Zimbabwe in November to show that they have the spirit to achieve the near impossible.

Zimbabwe have not been good against senior Test-playing teams, but they have been nowhere near that bad. Still, they will not rest easy, knowing the hidden brilliance of the Pakistanis.

For Zimbabwe, the equation is simple. Any sort of victory, or a tie or draw, would be enough for history to repeat itself and for them to get through to the Super Six when all seems lost. But don't tell the players that, or the pressure may be too much for them!

Basically, the result of the match will depend on how Pakistan play. Their bowling is far superior to anything Zimbabwe could put in the field; their batting is brilliant but very fragile; their state on mind will be an unknown quantity except to themselves and perhaps those close to them. They may come out fighting like the proverbial wounded tiger; they may have resigned themselves to a quick plane home and give it all away.

Zimbabwe's resources are more predictable that Pakistan's, but again their state of mind is unpredictable. But the knowledge that this is a match they HAVE to win will, on past experience, probably ensure that they don't. Under such pressure they rarely if ever play with true freedom and often crumble.

Zimbabwe's batting has proved sound over the last year or two, but their bowling is very limited at the highest level. The attack is built around Heath Streak, but he is not a match-winner with the ball in one-day cricket. The others are too inaccurate to bother the discriminating batsman.

Hopefully the Zimbabweans will give serious thought to unleashing Henry Olonga on the unsuspecting Pakistanis. Playing Henry is like playing Russian roulette: most of the time he is harmless, although he has been bowling well recently, when given the chance. But every once in a while, he is lethal. Zimbabwe should be willing to take that chance in a match where everything is at stake. It could just be his day, and he might just shatter Pakistan.

And it would prove to the world that the Zimbabwe Cricket Union is not victimising him as a result of his stand regarding the situation in the country. But that should not come into the issue. He should be selected as a calculated gamble, as the one match-winning bowler Zimbabwe possess.

The most likely result is a convincing win for Pakistan, but not quite convincing enough to push England out of the Super Sixes. But the situation in which this match is played means that the possibility always exists for it to be a quite extraordinary contest.