South Africa haunted by ghost of World Cups past

SYDNEY, AAP - Australia must be favoured because South Africa is carrying a passenger. He doesn't bat, bowl or field, but his presence is felt. He's the ghost of the last World Cup.

A dream final against Australia at the Wanderers in Johannesburg on March 23 will force South Africa to face its inner demons, the haunting memories of England, 1999, when they had Australia beaten not once, but twice.

Both times, they choked. There's no other description, no denying the fact. Herschelle Gibbs dropped Steve Waugh at Headingley and Lance Klusener had a brain explosion in a run-out at Edgbaston that knocked his side out of the tournament. Australia lifted the trophy.

South Africa has stewed on these blunders for the last four years. A long-awaited chance for redemption is nigh but it will take courage to achieve. A nation will be watching.

Fans from both countries are aching for an Australia v South Africa final. The ICC rankings demand it. Australia is No.1 ahead of South Africa with daylight third, then Pakistan, Sri Lanka, England, India, West Indies, New Zealand, Zimbabwe, Kenya and Bangladesh.

But there's no guarantee the script will be followed. Anything can happen. That's the beauty of one-day cricket, and the problem. Luck plays a major role. The best teams don't always win.

Sri Lanka and India proved as much when they upset Australia and South Africa at last year's Champions Trophy. Those games were in dusty Colombo, though. Conditions in South Africa - fast, bouncy pitches - will help the favourites and hinder those from the subcontinent.

Australia has gained an edge over South Africa since 1999, playing 17 times for ten wins and two ties. It's won eight of the last ten clashes including five, and a tie, from seven starts under new captain Ricky Ponting.

However, leading the best of seven series 5-nil last year, Australia slipped to a 65-run loss in the final match at Cape Town. South Africa can beat Australia, but can they do it when it matters?

Eight members of South Africa's heartbroken side from Edgbaston are back: Gibbs, Klusener, Shaun Pollock, Mark Boucher, Allan Donald, Jacques Kallis, Gary Kirsten and Jonty Rhodes. Australia has six survivors: Ponting, Adam Gilchrist, Michael Bevan, Darren Lehmann, Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne. The Waugh twins, Tom Moody, Paul Reiffel and Damien Fleming are gone.

Both sides are brilliant. Australia has better bowlers, South Africa has the world's best allrounders. The fielding can be breathtaking. It would be a battle royale.

South Africa's most recent series was a 4-1 home triumph over totally unpredictable Pakistan, Australia's dangerous first opponent on February 11. Any side boasting Wasim Akram, Waqar Younis, Saqlain Mushtaq, Inzamam-ul-Haq, Shahid Afridi and Shoaib Akhtar is a worry.

What of the others?

West Indies are the wild cards if Brian Lara fires. They beat New Zealand 3-1 at home last June, then India 4-3 in India in November, and then Bangladesh 2-0 away in December. They were nudged out in the Champions Trophy by South Africa by just two wickets.

Sri Lanka ran hot and cold while missing out on the tri-series finals this summer behind Australia and England. They need the stars - on the pitch and in the sky - to align. Sanath Jayasuriya, Muttiah Muralitharan are capable of great things if the gods allow it.

England is travelling all right, while New Zealand has just thumped India 5-2 at home, even without Chris Cairns. He's back for the World Cup. Zimbabwe could be a handful, on the field and off. India is a mystery but then again, so is the whole tournament. There will be 44 games in 54 days.

South Africa has the advantage of playing at home, but with that comes pressure. The hosts' biggest challenge might come from within.