Analysis

What do Sri Lanka have to do to qualify for the Super 12s?

Sri Lanka, Netherlands and Namibia are all still in the fray, but weather could make things tricky

Sri Lanka are a bit precariously placed, but a win over Netherlands will do the job for them  •  AFP/Getty Images

Sri Lanka are a bit precariously placed, but a win over Netherlands will do the job for them  •  AFP/Getty Images

Netherlands, Namibia and Sri Lanka are all in with a good shot of making the Super-12s from Group A. The first game on Thursday between Sri Lanka and Netherlands, is the big one, and the losing team will be left hoping for a UAE win over Namibia.
Sri Lanka - 2 points, NRR +0.6
Sri Lanka were expected to enter the Super 12s without too much fuss. But a loss to Namibia in the tournament opener by 55 runs put their campaign off track. However, the 2014 champions recovered with a 79-run win against UAE to boost their net run-rate.
Their ask now is simple. They need to beat Netherlands. If they do, the Namibia vs UAE result doesn't matter to them because of their strong NRR. A defeat, meanwhile, will make Sri Lanka bank on UAE, who then have to beat Namibia by 28 runs more than Sri Lanka's losing margin against Netherlands. Sri Lanka will not make it through to the next round if the remaining two Group A games end without results.
Netherlands - 4 points, NRR +0.149
Netherlands are currently top of Group A with back-to-back wins, but a defeat against Sri Lanka on Thursday could end their campaign. Their NRR of 0.149 is the lowest among the teams that will finish with four points - if Sri Lanka and Namibia win. Therefore, if they lose to Sri Lanka, Netherlands need to hope Namibia lose to UAE. They will proceed to the Super 12s if one of the two games on Thursday is washed out.
Namibia - 2 points, NRR +1.277
Despite the loss against Netherlands on Tuesday, Namibia are well-placed to qualify for the Super 12s. Their NRR of 1.277 is by far the best in their group, and a win against UAE would be enough for them.
Namibia can go through to the Super 12s even if they lose to UAE, but only if Sri Lanka lose to Netherlands too. Namibia can afford to lose by 27 runs if Netherlands beat Sri Lanka by the narrowest of margins. Since Namibia play last, they will have the advantage of knowing the equations in advance.
Namibia will go through along with Netherlands if both the matches on Thursday are washouts.
UAE - 0 points, NRR -2.028
Even though UAE have lost both their games, they are not quite out of the race to qualify for the Super 12s. However, the 79-run defeat against Sri Lanka on Tuesday has put them in a position where they would need a bit of a miracle.
They must beat Namibia by at least 66 runs to go ahead of their NRR and hope Sri Lanka lose to Netherlands by about 40 runs. The smaller the losing margin for Sri Lanka, the higher UAE need to win by. If Sri Lanka get points from the Netherlands game, UAE will automatically be out of the race.

Sampath Bandarupalli is a statistician at ESPNcricinfo