Three teams, one spot
England, South Africa and Sri Lanka are all in contention for the second semi-final slot in Group 1
S Rajesh
25-Mar-2016
West Indies' narrow win against South Africa means that the qualification scenarios have become clearer in Group 1. West Indies are through, but three teams are still in contention for the second spot. Here's what each of those teams needs to do to qualify.
England
Before the West Indies-South Africa game, there was a chance that England might have made the cut despite a defeat against Sri Lanka. However, the narrow margin of South Africa's defeat means that their NRR will stay above England's if England lose to Sri Lanka and South Africa beat Sri Lanka in their last game. England's only option, then, is to beat Sri Lanka to qualify for the semi-finals. If they lose to Sri Lanka they are out, regardless of other results.
Before the West Indies-South Africa game, there was a chance that England might have made the cut despite a defeat against Sri Lanka. However, the narrow margin of South Africa's defeat means that their NRR will stay above England's if England lose to Sri Lanka and South Africa beat Sri Lanka in their last game. England's only option, then, is to beat Sri Lanka to qualify for the semi-finals. If they lose to Sri Lanka they are out, regardless of other results.
South Africa
The result didn't go their way against West Indies, but the consolation for South Africa is that they took the game to the last over despite putting up a low total, thus ensuring that their NRR didn't take too much of a beating. Their current run rate of 0.485 is much better than England's (0.018) and Sri Lanka's (-0.171), which means they could still make it if the three teams finish level on points. For that to happen, Sri Lanka need to beat England, and South Africa need to get past Sri Lanka. If those results happen, there is a good chance that South Africa will be the second team to qualify from the group.
The result didn't go their way against West Indies, but the consolation for South Africa is that they took the game to the last over despite putting up a low total, thus ensuring that their NRR didn't take too much of a beating. Their current run rate of 0.485 is much better than England's (0.018) and Sri Lanka's (-0.171), which means they could still make it if the three teams finish level on points. For that to happen, Sri Lanka need to beat England, and South Africa need to get past Sri Lanka. If those results happen, there is a good chance that South Africa will be the second team to qualify from the group.
Sri Lanka
They are the only team with two matches still to play, and their first task to stay in contention will be to get past England. If they do beat England, the margin of that win will then decide if they can afford to lose their last match to South Africa and still get through.
They are the only team with two matches still to play, and their first task to stay in contention will be to get past England. If they do beat England, the margin of that win will then decide if they can afford to lose their last match to South Africa and still get through.
If, for instance, they beat England by 30 runs after scoring 180, their NRR will go up to 0.396. If they win by 50 runs, it will jump to 0.739. A huge win against England will allow them the cushion of losing to South Africa and still getting through; otherwise, their only alternative is to win both matches to qualify. What could help them is the fact that both matches will be played at the Feroz Shah Kotla in Delhi, where the pitch is quite slow and probably more favourable to Sri Lanka's brand of cricket than that of either England or South Africa.
S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats