The changing game: bowlers rise, batters fall, Tests get faster and shorter

In November 2015, South Africa lost an away Test series for the first time in nearly a decade when they went 2-0 down after three of the four Tests in India.

In the final Test, a dead rubber in Delhi, South Africa focused solely on playing for a draw instead of trying to get a consolation win when set a target of 481 in five full sessions. To achieve that, they scored 143 runs in 143.1 overs. They were on track for the longest time, but then lost their last five wickets in just 31 balls after tea on the final day. Morne Morkel was the fastest scorer with a strike rate of 33.33.

No team in the 152-year history of Test cricket has gone that long while scoring as slowly.

Fast forward ten years, and teams have a solid reason to do what South Africa tried to do in Delhi. You get four crucial points to help your cause on the World Test Championship (WTC) table, after all, and prevent the opposition from claiming the full 12 points.

Except, no one seems to be thinking that. There were only four draws in the WTC cycle which will have it's winner at Lord's in just over a week's time.

The introduction of the WTC in 2019 significantly changed the game. Teams actively work to avoid draws, and the pitches now favour bowlers more than ever before. In the six years leading up to the WTC's arrival (from 2013 to the end of the 2018-19 season), the average number of balls bowled per Test was 1946.64, with an average of 32.06 runs per wicket.

From 2019 to 2024-25, the average length of a Test has been 1785.87 balls, while the average runs per wicket fell to 30.31. Consequently, the number of balls taken per wicket declined from 59.52 to 54.72. The run rate, though, experienced a marginal increase - from 3.23 to 3.32.

The first two WTC cycles, 2019-21 and 2021-23, exhibited similar overall statistics. The average runs per wicket was 30.63 and 30.47, respectively, and wickets fell at a similar rate, 58.45 and 57 balls per wicket. Matches during those cycles lasted an average of 1855 balls.

The WTC 2023-25 cycle has been very different. Wickets have fallen every 47.81 balls, with only 1638.09 balls bowled per Test. At the same time, the average runs per wicket came down by only a run (29.11), as the scoring rate increased to 3.65 runs per over. Notably, 50 out of the 69 Tests in this cycle produced a result by the fourth day. Test cricket is now quicker both in terms of the scoring and wickets falling, resulting in shorter matches.

Only four Tests in this cycle ended in a draw - and all of them were affected by rain, preventing 300 overs of play.

However, these shifts didn't necessarily begin with the WTC. In the three years leading up to the first edition of the WTC, from 2016 to 2018-19, the draw percentage had dropped to 12.08%. Nearly half the Tests concluded within four days. The average number of balls bowled per Test was 1897.36, almost 19 overs fewer than the previous period - from 2013 to 2015-16 - when the average was 2009.39 balls. The average runs per wicket decreased by three, going from 33.99 (from 2013 to 2015-16) to 30.58 (from 2016 to 2018-19).

This trend remained consistent in the first three years of the WTC, from 2019 to 2021-22, with matches averaging 1878.38 balls, and runs scored per wicket averaging 30.09 - only slightly lower than the figures from 2016 to 2018-19.

The big change came in the latest cycle. Over the past three years, the average number of balls bowled per match has been just 1701.07, or about 283 overs. Out of the 120 Tests played during this period, 15 were completed in fewer than 200 overs, and 31 did not last beyond three days.

Of the 120 Tests played between 2022 and 2024-25, including Tests that were not a part of the WTC, 81 concluded with a win/loss by the fourth day. This means that only one in every three Tests has gone to the fifth day. In contrast, from 2013 to 2015-16, only 45 of the 117 Tests ended in four or fewer days.

Between 2022 and 2024-25, just 11 out of 120 Tests ended in draws. Because of the weather, fewer than 300 overs were bowled in five of them, and two others had fewer than 400 overs. In contrast, from 2013 to 2015-16, 26 matches ended in draws. In 17 of those 26 drawn Tests, at least 400 overs were bowled, and only six had fewer than 300 overs.

Many teams now prefer to chase wins on pitches that support bowlers, but that seems to be backfiring. Between 2013 and 2018-19, home teams won twice as many matches as they lost; however, that win-loss ratio has decreased to 1.488 since 2019 (until 2024-25).

The decline of home dominance in Tests is evident in the matches played during the three WTC cycles. Teams are looking to secure the full 12 points while playing at home by dishing out favourable pitches, but are instead conceding points to visiting teams.

In the first two WTC cycles, home teams had a win-loss ratio of 1.888 and 2.000, which dropped significantly to 1.166 in the third cycle. During this latest cycle, home teams won only 11 series while losing ten, compared to the first two cycles, where they won 15 series and lost just 11.

India were clean swept at home for the first time in a series of three or more Tests when New Zealand beat them 3-0. That ended India's record streak of 18 consecutive Test series wins at home. New Zealand themselves suffered twin series losses at home, having not lost a series there in nearly seven years. Bangladesh also took down Pakistan while touring, winning both Tests in a two-match series.

Bowlers have had a bigger say on the first day of matches. Between 2022 and 2024-25, the average runs per wicket was 33.7, with a wicket falling every 56.77 balls. The corresponding figures from 2013 to 2015-16 were more than 40 and 78.

Although the average dropped to 37.8 in the three-year periods from 2016 to 2018-19 and 2019 to 2021-22, wickets were harder to come by. The average balls per wicket in those were 70.79 and 75.19, respectively.

A similar trend is observed when classifying the first-day averages across WTC cycles. The latest cycle shows an average of 32.28 runs per wicket, five below the previous two. The average balls per wicket slid to 54.28, nearly 15 balls fewer than in earlier periods.

Another trend shaping modern Test cricket is the decline in batting, which some attribute to the rise of white-ball cricket and the dominance of bowlers in the longest format. The basic numbers of individuals do back that claim.

In the six years leading up to the 2019 season, 37 batters scored over 2000 runs, with nine players averaging 50. Among them, two batters maintained an average above 60. Since 2019, none of the 29 batters who have scored over 2000 runs have an average over 60, and only four have an average of 50 or more.

Bowlers, however, have significantly improved their averages and strike rates.

Over six years leading up to 2019, 48 bowlers took more than 50 wickets, but only 12 had an average below 25.

In contrast, since 2019, that number has risen to 19 out of 48. Bowling strike rates have also improved; half of the 48 bowlers have struck every 50 balls since 2019, whereas only eight bowlers did that in the six years before the WTC.