WWC qualification scenarios: Big win boosts England's chances; India need a point; NZ all but out

West Indies are also in contention to make the semis, but their fate is out of their hands

S Rajesh
S Rajesh
Poonam Yadav struck immediately in her first game of the tournament, Bangladesh v India, Women's World Cup, Hamilton, March 22, 2022

India can reach the semis with just a point against South Africa, but a defeat could put an end to their campaign  •  Getty Images

The washout in Wellington means South Africa are through to the semi-finals as the second-ranked team, while England's emphatic win in Christchurch puts them in an excellent position to qualify as well. Here is how the teams stack up, with two positions still up for grabs, going into the last four games of the league stage.
Played: 6, Points: 6, NRR: 0.778, Remaining match: vs Bangladesh
England's win against Pakistan in 19.2 overs means their net run rate has gone up to 0.778, marginally above India's and the best among the teams in contention for the semi-finals. If they beat Bangladesh on Sunday, they will qualify regardless of other results, but whether they finish third or fourth will depend on the result - and margin - of India's match against South Africa. A washout will be enough for England too, given their high NRR.
However, if Bangladesh upset England and if India beat South Africa, then England will be knocked out. In that case, Australia, South Africa, India and West Indies will qualify. However, if India lose to South Africa, then England could qualify even with a defeat on Sunday, as long as their NRR is the best among the teams on six points.
West Indies
Played: 7, Points: 7, NRR: -0.885
The only way West Indies can qualify is if at least one of India or England lose their last game and stay on six points. If both teams win, or even if their matches are abandoned, then West Indies will be knocked out because of their poor NRR.
Played: 6, Points: 6, NRR: 0.768, Remaining match: vs South Africa
The one point that West Indies have got from the washout has made the task tougher for India: it is now highly unlikely that they will qualify if they lose to South Africa. For that to happen, England will need to lose to Bangladesh, and finish on a lower NRR than India.
On the other hand, even one point from their last game will be enough for India to qualify.
New Zealand
Played: 6, Points: 4, NRR: -0.229, Remaining match: vs Pakistan
With three teams already having more than six points, and England and India on six with much better NRRs, New Zealand are pretty much out of it. Even if they score 300 and beat Pakistan by 200 runs, their NRR will only improve to 0.427. Both England and India will have to lose by around 75 runs for their NRRs to drop in the vicinity of New Zealand's.
Bangladesh can theoretically get to six points too, but their NRR is poor (-0.754) and their last two games are against Australia and England.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats