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Stats Analysis

Spin wars in the UAE: can inexperienced Australia hold their own?

Australia have lost four of their last five Test series in Asia. Will Lyon's improved subcontinent record boost them this time around?

Bharath Seervi
04-Oct-2018
Nathan Lyon roars out an appeal  •  Getty Images and Cricket Australia

Nathan Lyon roars out an appeal  •  Getty Images and Cricket Australia

Australia's subcontinent woes
Australia's performances in Asia in the recent past have been woeful. Now, in the absence of Steven Smith and David Warner, they are set to begin a two-match Test series against Pakistan in the UAE. In their last five tours to the subcontinent, Australia have lost 12 matches and have managed to win only two Tests out of 15. They have lost four of those series losses and have drawn one. The main reason behind this has been their batsmen's inability to tackle spin in the subcontinent conditions.
Australia batsmen have lost 81.07% of their wickets to spinners in the last five tours to Asia since 2013. Among all the non-Asian teams in this period, only South Africa batsmen have lost more wickets to the spinners of subcontinent teams - 82.87%.
Overall, subcontinent spinners have averaged 22.71 against Australia in Asia since 2013, the second-best against all non-Asian teams after South Africa. In 15 Tests in the subcontinent since 2013, Australia have lost 227 wickets to spinners, with a wicket falling every 52 deliveries.
Percentage of wickets lost to spin by non-Asian teams in Asia since 2013
Team Wkts to bowlers Pace Spin % wkts to spin
 South Africa  181  31  150  82.87
 Australia  280  53  227  81.07
 Zimbabwe  80  16  64  80.00
 England  182  41  141  77.47
 New Zealand  131  33  98  74.80
 West Indies  128  48  80  62.50
Among the batsmen in the Australia squad, Shaun Marsh has been the most comfortable against spinners in the subcontinent. Against spin, he has averaged 45.12 in 13 innings and has been dismissed eight times. Their captain Tim Paine has an average of 51 against spin in four innings but these numbers are from Australia's tour of India in 2010.
Usman Khawaja has been the most vulnerable against spin in Asia, with an average of just 13.16 in nine innings. In his last two subcontinent tours - in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh - he lost his wicket to spin five times in six innings.
Australia will miss Smith the most on this tour. He had scored 1200 runs in 13 Tests in Asia at an average of 48. In four of the last five tours to the subcontinent, he has averaged over 40. In the last tour to UAE, he scored 174 runs in four innings with two fifties. He also averages more than 40 against spinners in subcontinent conditions.
Australia batsmen against spin in Asia
Batsman Inns Runs Balls Dis Ave
 TD Paine  4  102  262  2  51.00
 SE Marsh  13  361  978  8  45.12
 MT Renshaw  10  213  504  6  35.50
 MR Marsh  14  277  569  12  23.08
 UT Khawaja  9  79  204  5  13.16
A lack of experience
The total experience of Australia's current squad in Asia is just 63 Tests. Among the 15 players, five are yet to make their Test debut here and, apart from Nathan Lyon, none of them have played more than 10 Test matches. Captain Paine last played in Asia in 2010.
Australia selectors have largely picked the squad looking at the performance of the players in the A team's tour to India last month. Nine of the 15 players in their squad to the UAE were part of that Mitchell Marsh-led Australia A side for the four-day games.
While the current Australian squad is short of Test-match experience in Asia, they would be encouraged by the performances of their players on that A tour to India: Khawaja, Mitchell Marsh and Travis Head averaged more than 50, while Jon Holland took nine wickets at an average of 18.88.
Spin wars in the UAE
In 13 Tests played between Pakistan and non-Asian teams since 2013, the Pakistan spinners have picked 145 wickets at an average of 30.14 with six five-wicket hauls, while the spinners of the non-Asian teams have managed 89 wickets in those games at an average of 51.12 with four five-wicket hauls.
Yasir Shah has been Pakistan's standout bowler in the UAE. He has picked up 63 wickets in 10 matches against the touring non-Asian teams at an average of 25.34. The other spinner in the Pakistan squad, Shadab Khan, is yet to bowl in Tests in the UAE. Australia spinners averaged 88.80 in their previous two-match series here in 2013-14. They picked 10 wickets in the two Tests.
Lyon's improved record in Asia
Offspinner Nathan Lyon is the most experienced player in the current Australian squad. His recent numbers show an improved record compared to his overall performance in subcontinent conditions. In the last tours to India and Bangladesh, Lyon picked 41 wickets in six matches at an average of 19.39 with five five-wicket hauls. In the four tours prior to that, he had managed just 42 wickets in 11 Tests at an average of 42.57 with two five-fors.
Nathan Lyon in Tests in Asia
Period Mats Wkts Ave 5WI
 2011-2016  11  42  42.57  2
 2017 onwards  6  41  19.39  5
In two Tests in the UAE in 2014-15, Lyon picked up just three wickets at an average of 140.66. However, in the warm-up game against Pakistan A, he picked up eight wickets in the first innings. It will be interesting to see how an improved Lyon performs in the UAE this time around.

Bharath Seervi is stats sub-editor at ESPNcricinfo. @SeerviBharath