Stokes, Nortje, Curran, Hasaranga - will IPL teams release the big names?

IPL franchises have till November 26 to announce their final list of retentions ahead of the 2024 player auction, which will be held in Dubai on December 19. Two key factors that franchises will consider before finalising the list of retained and released players are: the new names available for bidding, and the mega auction ahead of the 2025 season, where squads will be revamped.

Franchises are keen to bid both for successful young talents at the recent World Cup - such as Rachin Ravindra, Gerald Coetzee, Travis Head and Azmatullah Omarzai - as well as experienced hands like Mitchell Starc, Chris Woakes and Pat Cummins. Some of these names are bound to attract massive bids, a common theme at mini auctions. However, the franchises will need a strong purse at the auction, which they can bolster only by releasing players who were bought at big prices in the last two years.

With the mega auction scheduled ahead of IPL 2025, franchises wouldn't mind releasing some big names with the option to buy back cheap either this time itself or a year later when a stronger purse will be available to them.

Here, we look at some significant names that the franchises will deliberate on in the lead up to retention day.

At the last auction, Kings outbid five rivals to sign Curran for INR 18.5 crore (US$ 2.256 million approx.), thus making the England allrounder the most expensive player in the IPL. Curran, who was named the Player of the Tournament in England's victorious 2022 T20 World Cup campaign, was sought after for a number of reasons - his age (25), his ability to bat anywhere, his power-hitting against spin, his leadership skills, and, of course, his left-arm pace.

However, his returns in IPL 2023 were weak, as he managed just ten wickets in 14 matches at an average of nearly 49, and an economy of over ten. With the bat, Curran scored 276 runs at a strike rate of 136, and an average of over 27.

Along with the fresh purse of INR 5 crore, Kings will have more than INR 21 crore in case they release Curran. Also, they can release him keeping the option of buying him back before 2025 in mind.

Harshal Patel and Wanindu Hasaranga were both bought for a handsome INR 10.75 crore in the 2022 and the 2023 auctions, respectively. Both were playing at the M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Royal Challengers' home base, for the first time. But both struggled at the ground with small boundaries.

Hasaranga, who missed the ODI World Cup to deal with a hamstring injury, played in just eight of the 14 matches last season, picking nine wickets at an economy of nearly nine. In the home matches, Hasaranga had just four wickets in four matches at an economy rate of 8.76.

Harshal, who was a part of the 2022 T20 World Cup squad but did not feature in a single game, just missed one match last season. He picked up 14 wickets at an economy of 9.65. While Harshal had succeeded with his variations at the death in his first two seasons - played in the UAE and in Mumbai - he became predictable in Bengaluru. He played all the seven home matches, but managed just nine wickets at 9.65.

As a result, Andy Flower, Royal Challengers' newly-appointed coach, might consider releasing both players and buying them back at lower prices.

The stress fracture in the elbow, which has kept Archer out for the majority of the past two years, resurfaced midway into the ODI World Cup, where he was travelling as a reserve for England. Archer was sent back home, ruled out of the white-ball series in December in the West Indies, and there is no definitive timeline on his return.

Mumbai surprised everybody at the 2022 mega auction by picking Archer, who was not ready to bowl. After being entirely absent in the first season, Archer played just four matches in 2023 season before heading home after a recurrence of the elbow injury. Do Mumbai continue to show patience, and hope Archer turns up during the 2024 IPL, or do they find a replacement and retain him ahead of the 2025 mega auction?

Another player who has been hindered by injuries for a significant period of time is Nortje, who was retained by Capitals in 2022 for INR 6.5 crore. Able to bowl an entire over at 150kph, Nortje had recovered from a groin injury earlier in the year to play ten matches for Capitals in the 2023 season before heading home for personal reasons.

While he played the inaugural season of Major League Cricket in the USA, he aborted the ODI series at home against Australia in September following suspected stress fracture in the back, and was eventually also ruled out of the ODI World Cup. While ESPNcricinfo has learned that Nortje is doubtful for the SA20 (starting January 10), there is no update yet from CSA on when the fast bowler will be back.

By deciding to opt out of the 2024 season, Stokes has presented Super Kings with a simple decision to make. They bought Stokes in the 2023 auction for INR 16.25 crore, making him their most expensive auction buy ever. The risk of not releasing Stokes in an attempt to retain him ahead of the 2025 mega auction is huge. If they do not release Stokes, Super Kings will have a lighter purse at the upcoming auction.

Ferguson returned to Knight Riders last season after they traded him in from Gujarat Titans. Knight Riders paid INR 10.75 crore to Titans, who had shelled out a similar amount to get Ferguson in the 2022 auction. However, Ferguson, who can spear 150-plus deliveries at ease in all three phases of an innings, could only play three matches last season, where he was hampered by a hamstring injury. Recently, Ferguson bravely played the ODI World Cup while dealing with Achilles' injury throughout, which will also keep him out of the Plunket Shield.

Knight Riders could fancy releasing Ferguson to strengthen their purse, which would allow them to look at other options in 2024.