Handling spin the key for England

Over the last few months, Sri Lanka have experienced a severe dip in Test form, going down to England, Pakistan and South Africa in three consecutive series. However, they did show glimpses of form on the tour of South Africa, where they pulled off a stunning upset in the second Test in Durban. Since the retirement of their highest wicket-taker, Muttiah Muralitharan, Sri Lanka's inexperienced bowling attack has failed to bowl out the opposition regularly enough to win Tests home or away. England, who started 2011 on a high by winning their first Ashes series in Australia in 24 years and followed it up with a 4-0 whitewash of India, began 2012 on a low by going down 3-0 to Pakistan in the UAE. The technical lapses of the England batsmen against spin were thoroughly exposed, in the three-Test series, by Saeed Ajmal and Abdur Rehman, who between them picked up 43 of the 60 wickets to fall. Sri Lanka, on the other hand, found the South Africa pace attack extremely difficult to handle on their recent tour but will be far more confident of a better display against England's fast bowlers in batting-friendly conditions at home.

Stern test for visiting teams
Following their abysmal display against quality spin in their recent series against Pakistan, England will be highly aware of the challenge that they face in a country where spinners have traditionally dominated contests. Sri Lanka have not lost a single series to non-subcontinent teams other than Australia since 2004. Only Australia have managed to upstage Sri Lanka in two series (3-0 in 2004 and 1-0 in 2011) at home. England and South Africa, the top two teams in Tests presently, have struggled to come to grips with the conditions in Sri Lanka. While England have failed to win a single match in their last two series, South Africa have not done much better and have a 1-4 record in Sri Lanka in Tests played since 2000. The average difference (difference between batting average and bowling average) is the highest for Australia (7.07). For all the other non-subcontinent teams, the average difference in the period since 2000 is negative with England's average difference of -12.15 being marginally better than the corresponding figures of the other teams.

A massive miss
Muralitharan was undoubtedly Sri Lanka's greatest match winner in Tests. He finished with a record 800 wickets including 493 in home Tests and ended his career as the only bowler with 100-plus wickets at three different venues. However, since his retirement, things have gone downhill for Sri Lanka. They have failed to register a single series win and have lost four consecutive series (one at home against Australia). His impact is very clear when Sri Lanka's stats are considered. Between 2000 and his retirement in 2010, Sri Lanka won 28 of the 49 home matches in which Muralitharan played and lost just 11. Their draw percentage in the home Tests during that period was just 20.40. Although Sri Lanka failed to match up to their awesome home record when they travelled, their away win-loss record (12 wins and 16 losses) was not too bad and the draw percentage (20.00) was quite similar to that at home.

However, in home matches when Muralitharan did not figure, Sri Lanka's draw percentage went up drastically to 53.84, while the win-loss ratio still remained quite creditable (2.00). In away Tests without Muralitharan, Sri Lanka managed just two wins while suffering eight losses. The average difference (difference between Sri Lanka's batting and bowling averages) is clearly high in matches when Muralitharan has been a part of the team and has fallen away in games when he has not figured. Considering that his performances against England have been exceptional, Sri Lanka's stats in matches against England are no different from the overall numbers - when Muralitharan has played, Sri Lanka have a positive average difference. The value, however, has fallen to -11.94 when he has not been part of the team.

Conditions likely to test England
England came into their last series against Pakistan on a high after beating Sri Lanka and India at home. They were quickly brought down to earth in vastly different conditions that provided enough assistance to spinners. Ajmal, in particular, tormented the top-order batsmen with his variations and even the experienced Kevin Pietersen and Ian Bell had no answers. Not only were the batsmen dismissed for low scores, they also found it very difficult to score quickly. Only Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott managed slightly respectable averages (30.00 and 28.00) and balls-per-dismissal values (91.25 and 84.66). Cook, who scored a vital century in Galle on the last tour of Sri Lanka, saving England from an embarrassing defeat, will be the key batsman at the top of the order. Pietersen and Bell, on the other hand, averaged just 9.20 and 12.50 respectively and had extremely low balls-per-dismissal values against spinners (27.80 and 39.75). While Trott and Bell had poor figures against pace bowlers too, Cook and Andrew Strauss did much better against fast bowling. Sri Lanka, who have troubled visiting teams in the past with their quality spin options, are more than likely to employ a similar strategy against an England team that is still quite shaky against spin.

The case was quite the opposite with the Sri Lanka batsmen, who lost their way against high-quality pace and swing bowling in South Africa. In bouncy conditions that aided fast bowling, all top batsmen with the exception of Thilan Samaraweera struggled for consistency. Tillakaratne Dilshan, despite managing to score at a fast clip, averaged 34.25 against pace and was dismissed by the quicks four times. Sri Lanka's most experienced batsmen, Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene, also had their problems, averaging 31.25 and 14.83 respectively. Samaraweera was superb in the three-match series and averaged 65.00 against the fast bowlers with a high balls-per-dismissal value of 133.75. The talented duo of Angelo Mathews and Dinesh Chandimal was also found wanting against South Africa's fast bowlers and both batsmen - if Mathews plays - are likely to be tested by England's strong pace attack. Monty Panesar, who was in fine form in the UAE, is likely to be Graeme Swann's spin partner and provide the much-needed variety for England on the spinner-friendly tracks.

A match-winning partnership
Sangakkara and Jayawardene have been the pillars of Sri Lanka's batting for almost a decade now and their partnership has helped set up a majority of the home wins. As expected, they have been supreme in home Tests, averaging 73.02 with ten century stands. In away Tests, their average is lower (44.11) and the ratio of century to fifty stands (4:13) is also lower than the corresponding number in home Tests (1:1). In home wins, their average goes up to 98.45 with six century stands. Overall, they average 58.88 and their partnership aggregate has constituted 52.27% of the team runs. However, in home Tests, the percentage contribution is almost 11% higher than the overall value (63.11%).

Draws unlikely
The two venues for the series have been result-oriented in the last few years. Galle, the venue for the first Test, hosted a low-scoring first Test against Australia last year, which the visitors went on to win by 125 runs. In the last six Tests in Galle, only one match has been drawn. The average runs-per-wicket falls from nearly 43 in the first innings to 28.20 in the second innings. In the third innings of matches, it is only slightly better (31.95) than the second innings, but falls again to just 20.30 in the fourth innings. It is one of the few venues in Sri Lanka where pace bowlers can hope to match the spinners' success. While fast bowlers have 90 wickets at 32.73, spinners have done only slightly better, picking up 101 wickets while averaging a slightly lower 32.63. The P Sara Oval has had results in all three previous matches and is a better venue for spinners (61 wickets at 29.72) than for fast bowlers (36 wickets at 35.55). The average runs-per-wicket value remains low for the first three innings but considerably improves for the fourth innings (55.20).