Weird and wonderful series theories

The build-up to the first Test has produced an unusual mix of theories laced with fact and fantasy. John Bracewell, the New Zealand coach, is a zany thinker who has stumbled on the debatable discovery that Australia are vulnerable the longer a Test lasts. On the fifth day, he reckons, they win 33% of matches.

At first listen the idea may sound plausible. Australia's record in fourth-innings chases was exposed again two weeks ago at Mumbai, when it joined the SCG, The Oval and Headingley as venues of chaotic collapses. But this team scores so quickly and bowls so aggressively that since 2001 the final day has been redundant 20 times.

"What's our record like on the third and fourth day?" Ricky Ponting asked to challenge Bracewell's research. "That's a strange one. If we're in a position to win a Test on the fifth day I'm backing our side." Australia have lost five of 27 matches on the final day since 2001, so Bracewell's claim might be as light-hearted as the giggle Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath gave Ponting when they publicly targeted Stephen Fleming and Nathan Astle.

With a bowling attack based around medium pace and Daniel Vettori, New Zealand's best method of attack will be defence. Ponting expects his opposite number to try dragging out the matches in a similar way to the 2001-02 contest, which was drawn 0-0. "I've thought about that a lot before the series and we talked about it in our team meeting," he said. "They'll try slowing the scoring rate, but sides have done that to us over the past 10 years and we've coped."

Fleming will unveil his tactics on the field after giving little away in his pre-match conference. "The excitement of trying a few things and actually working out how to get 20 wickets is part of the fun," he said. "We're going to have to play extremely well every day, we can't afford to have a bad session." At least the mystery surrounding his illness is over and he is claiming full fitness.

One thing that hasn't changed is the pitch, which is a typical Kevin Mitchell production. Green but hard, it will offer early bowling assistance that will not put Ponting off batting first and searching for a 500-plus total. "We think it's time to get a big innings," he said. "We've been batting well without nailing down that really big score."

And just as the talk was getting serious, the news spilled out that Australia had selected Darren Lehmann, hamstring permitting, to race the opener Mark Richardson in the battle of the team's turtles after the two Tests. This series could be too much fun.