Big picture: Can Pakistan put up a fight?
England have won all three matches so far this World Cup.
Pakistan have won three matches ever in a World Cup, and are currently on a three-game losing streak in this one. Whichever way you slice this - individual stats, head-to-head, tournament record, cricketing pedigree - it feels like a serious mismatch on paper. England are making a strong World Cup charge, having pretty much smoked each of their oppositions so far. Pakistan, meanwhile, haven't really got close to any of their oppositions.
It has been the batting that has been Pakistan's biggest problem, as usual. Their totals so far have been 129, 159, and 114. Only
Sidra Amin has hit a half-century (though she's got there twice). The Khettarama surfaces tend to be sluggish, but even by Colombo's standards, Pakistan's batters have been too staid, going long stretches without boundaries. They have something of an advantage in this tournament - they play all their matches at one ground. But it still doesn't feel like they are in a position to capitalise.
Where Pakistan are already at a stage where they need to salvage something out of this tournament, England have their sights on a semi-final spot. They will also feel they have the bowling to inflict another low score on Pakistan. On Saturday, the world's top ODI bowler
Sophie Ecclestone delivered one of the spells of the tournament to take Sri Lanka down. Fellow spinners
Linsey Smith and
Charlie Dean have also taken six wickets apiece so far this tournament.
England WWWLW (last five ODIs, most recent first)
Pakistan LLLWL
In the spotlight: Muneeba Ali and Nat Sciver-Brunt
Although Amin has found success in this tournament, Pakistan's other form batter,
Muneeba Ali hasn't quite made her mark yet. She had come into the World Cup with some decent form, having hit 76 and 44 in the pre-tournament series against South Africa, and had averaged 44.60 in the World Cup Qualifier in Lahore, in April. Pakistan have lost early wickets in each of their games so far. Runs from Muneeba will solve at least some of their batting woes.
Nat Sciver-Brunt, meanwhile, strode to a fifth World Cup ton (her tenth in ODIs overall) on Saturday, and in the closing stages of that innings, unfurled some of the best batting this venue has seen in the tournament. She has partner Katherine Sciver-Brunt and their baby Theo along for this section of the World Cup, and was desperate to put on a
show for them against Sri Lanka. Sciver-Brunt is never really far from form, but now that she has a hundred under her belt here, oppositions will be especially wary.
It's possible that legspin-bowling allrounder Syeda Aroob Shah could enter the XI.
Pakistan (probable): 1 Sadaf Shamas, 2 Muneeba Ali, 3 Sidra Amin, 4 Sidra Nawaz (wk), 5 Natalia Pervaiz, 6 Eyman Fatima, 7 Fatima Sana (capt), 8 Rameen Shamim/Syeda Aroob Shah, 9 Diana Baig, 10 Nashra Sandhu, 10 Sadia Iqbal
England could go in with an unchanged XI for the fourth match in a row.
England (probable): 1 Tammy Beaumont, 2 Amy Jones (wk), 3 Heather Knight, 4 Nat Sciver-Brunt (capt), 5 Sophia Dunkley, 6 Emma Lamb, 7 Alice Capsey, 8 Charlie Dean, 9 Sophie Ecclestone, 10 Linsey Smith, 11 Lauren Bell
Pitch and conditions: More rain (perhaps), more spin (for sure)
Colombo's weather continues as usual. The northeast monsoon has made less of an intrusion than feared at the start of the tournament, though there is always the chance it could impose itself. The pitch will take turn.
"Pakistan have been involved in some really exciting games of cricket, and they've had teams on the back foot a little bit."
England allrounder Alice Capsey suggests they aren't taking Pakistan lightly