Should Nathan Ellis be a first-choice Australia T20I bowler?

There is a debate raging in Australia about whether Scott Boland should be a first-choice bowler in the Test team at the expense of one of the big three.

Concurrently, there is a similar debate occurring, though far less public or vociferous, around Nathan Ellis being a first-choice bowler in Australia's T20I side when the big three are fit and available for the 2026 T20 World Cup.

Boland is a national cult hero, in whose honour Australian taxpayers would happily fund a statue outside the MCG. Apart from Hobart, where he is a BBL title-winning captain, Ellis could walk down most streets in mainland Australia without being recognised.

Yet the latter has arguably an even stronger case than the former to be permanent fixture in an Australian team at the expense of one of Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins.

Even with Hazlewood's return in the upcoming series against South Africa, Ellis has the chance to continue to build on a case that is fast becoming irrefutable following his astonishing performance in the batter-dominated series in the Caribbean.

Of the bowlers who played more than three matches in the series against West Indies, he had the best economy rate of just 7.88. The next best pace bowler went at 9.50 and the overall series economy rate was 10.23.

"He's been our go-to guy," team-mate Cameron Green told ESPN's Around The Wicket after the West Indies series. "And I think he's, real, real close to getting to that main team, if not in it. He's the guy that we probably go to [in the] sixth over in the powerplay, we always know that's so tough, especially when they've been none down at a couple of games. I think he bowls three at the death for us, so he's just doing all the hard roles. He seems to thrive in them. He's got so many tricks up his sleeve, so we're really pleased with how he's going."

It is the specific skills he brings in that specific role that has Ellis positioned to possibly break up the big three. Since the start of 2024, Ellis has been one of the best death bowlers in T20Is, conceding just 6.85 runs per over. Among Australian bowlers in that timeframe, he is head and shoulders above his teammates in the death overs, with Cummins the next best at 7.75.

The way Australia structure a T20I innings in terms of the deployment of the bowlers means that it will be almost impossible to leave Ellis out, as Green articulated.

One of Australia's long-known weaknesses in T20Is is their death bowling. Starc and Hazlewood are two of the best new ball powerplay bowlers in the world in terms of taking wickets upfront, as their IPL value and performance proves. Australia would typically plan to use four, possibly five if the ball was swinging, of their combined eight overs in the powerplay.

That leaves a third seamer to bowl in the sixth over the powerplay, before Adam Zampa and the allrounders bowl most of their overs post-powerplay, and multiple overs at the death given Starc and Hazlewood might also be used for an over in the middle as a specific match-up.

That role has often fallen to Cummins. But despite Cummins being a far more sought-after and expensive IPL purchase, albeit for the combination of his leadership and hitting skills as well, Ellis is unequivocally a better bowler in that role based on recent performances.

Australia may also consider playing a second specialist spinner in certain conditions in the T20 World Cup, particularly if they are drawn to play in Sri Lanka. Ellis' selection value only increases in that scenario given Australia prefer spinners and allrounders bowl powerplay overs rather than at the death.

Part of what makes Ellis so good is that he is the complete antithesis of the big three. He doesn't look like he was designed in a lab to bowl fast. While the other three can roll out of bed and send down 140kph thunderbolts from a towering height, Ellis has to sprint in and throw himself at the crease with every fibre of his smaller frame to even nudge the speed gun close to 140kph.

But his lack of height plays in his favour. Very few batters can get under him. On top of having great length control and outstanding yorker skills, even when he misses it is hard for the best hitters in the world to get enough leverage under his skiddy trajectory to clear the rope. Australia and West Indies struck a combined 117 sixes in the recent five-match series, the second-most in a bilateral series, and Ellis conceded just three. And they are the only three he's conceded in his last 10 T20Is.

One of the weaknesses of Australia's big three in T20 cricket, especially on subcontinental pitches, is that their well-honed natural Test match length combined with their higher release points can make their on-speed deliveries sit up on a tee for power-hitters when they miss their spots.

Ellis also has a greater range of slower balls, and an ability to make dramatic speed changes without giving the batters many cues. The first ball he bowled in the series in the Caribbean, having bowled only four overs in a match in the previous five months, was a 114kph back-of-the-hand slower ball that beat Shai Hope. His next delivery 139kph at the top of off stump cost a single only.

His management also speaks to his importance to Australia's plans. He is the only white-ball specialist seamer currently on Australia's central contract list.

In 2023, when he wasn't centrally contracted, he played 53 T20s globally across the BBL, IPL, T20 Blast, the Hundred and T20Is and had his highest calendar year economy rate across the last five years. In 2024, he went straight from the IPL to the T20 World Cup and then to the Hundred but broke down with a hamstring injury which saw him miss Australia's entire 11-game white-ball tour of the UK.

Earlier this year there was a request from Hurricanes for him to play the Global Super League ahead of the Caribbean tour, but CA knocked it back knowing his importance for that series with the big three set to be rested. He also did not play in the MLC or the Blast, no small sacrifice given the potential earnings available.

He was the only one of Australia's fast bowlers in the five-match, eight-day long series not to be rested despite the final three matches being played in a four-day stretch.

Keeping him fresh allows him to lead the attack in series where the big three are rested, so they in turn can remain fresh for Test duty.

But when all four come together, possibly in October for a short series in New Zealand but most definitely for the T20 World Cup, a difficult selection decision looms.