Bazball vs India's spinners, or Bazball vs England's spinners?

Bazball vs spin. It promises to be the story of these five Tests, and it might be a story of parallel plots. There is, of course, Bazball vs India's spinners. But perhaps even more relevant to England's chances is the question of Bazball vs England's spinners.

What? Hang in there. All will be explained.

England's spinners conceded roughly 18 runs more per wicket than India's did during the 2016-17 tour, and 12 runs more per wicket - on far spicier pitches - in 2020-21. Even if Bazball manages to inflate the averages of India's spinners on this tour, it's hard to see it translate into results if England's spinners can't bridge the gap in the other direction.

Alastair Cook and Kevin Pietersen batted magnificently in 2012-13, but England won that series primarily because Monty Panesar, Graeme Swann and James Anderson outbowled a transitional India attack. Since then, Australia have been the only team to come close to even drawing a Test series in India; they came as close as they did in 2016-17 and 2022-23 because their bowlers came close to matching the skill and discipline of R Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja.

Can England find a way to do this? They've named their XI for the first Test in Hyderabad, which begins on Thursday on a pitch that looks dry and selectively watered, and that XI includes three frontline spinners. Those spinners have played played 36 Tests between them, of which Jack Leach accounts for 35.

Hardly Swann and Panesar, then.

It's a selection that reflects a broader reality - spin occupies a narrow and an ever-shrinking space in 21st century County cricket - and England can only choose from what they have. It means that the odds are stacked against them at the start of another India tour, but do not bet against Brendon McCullum and Ben Stokes finding a way to make things interesting.

India WLDWL (last five Tests, most recent first)
England WDWLL

Shubman Gill finds himself at an interesting juncture in his Test career, seeking to establish himself in a new role at No. 3 while still finding his feet in the format. There's no doubting his talent, and his average of 30.58 after 20 Tests is partly down to the bowler-friendly pitches he has usually had to play on, but he'll feel under some pressure as Virat Kohli, who has opted out due to personal reasons, might return after the second Test. Gill endured a torrid series the last time England toured India, averaging 19.83 and falling five times in seven innings to fast bowlers. He'll want to show an improved defence against conventional and reverse swing this time, and ensure he's around for the notionally bigger challenge of scoring runs against spin.

Talk of spin has dominated the lead-up to this match, but England will not be unaware that Umesh Yadav, Jason Holder and Shannon Gabriel shared 18 wickets in the last Test played in Hyderabad. That may have been more than five years ago, and an entirely different surface may have been prepared for this game, but if there's bounce on offer - as there was in 2018 - then Mark Wood could find a way to make it his ally.

After keeping wicket for the first time in his Test career on the recent tour of South Africa, KL Rahul will return to being a specialist batter, though he will remain in the middle order. KS Bharat, who kept in all four Tests of India's last home series, seems likely to return to the XI ahead of the uncapped Dhruv Jurel, though Rohit Sharma didn't give a definitive answer to this question in his pre-match press conference. Axar Patel's batting and encouraging recent form with the ball is likely to earn him selection as third spinner ahead of Kuldeep Yadav. With Kohli out, India are spared the headache of leaving out one of Rahul, Gill and Shreyas Iyer.

India (probable): 1 Rohit Sharma (capt), 2 Yashasvi Jaiswal, 3 Shubman Gill, 4 Shreyas Iyer, 5 KL Rahul, 6 Ravindra Jadeja, 7 KS Bharat (wk), 8 Axar Patel, 9 R Ashwin, 10 Jasprit Bumrah, 11 Mohammed Siraj

England have made a similar decision to India in handing the big gloves to their best pure keeper in Ben Foakes, and letting Jonny Bairstow focus on his batting.

England: 1 Zak Crawley, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Ollie Pope, 4 Joe Root, 5 Jonny Bairstow, 6 Ben Stokes (capt), 7 Ben Foakes (wk), 8 Rehan Ahmed, 9 Mark Wood, 10 Tom Hartley, 11 Jack Leach

With the World Test Championship points structure putting extra pressure on teams to win games, teams around the world have taken to preparing bowler-friendly pitches. This, in India, has meant tracks that turn from day one, and Hyderabad is unlikely to buck this trend, with the pitch sporting distinctly dry-looking strips at either end on a spinner's good length.

The weather is expected to be clear and pleasant, with daytime temperatures in the high 20s (Celsius).

"By no means whatever record we have in the past decade or so gives us the guarantee that we are going to come out here on top as well, and win the series. We still have to play our best cricket - good cricket that we know that we play in these conditions... The last team to beat us here in our conditions was England. I wouldn't say we are not beatable. Definitely we are. We want to think that if we don't step up or if you don't show up, well, we are going to find ourselves in trouble."
India captain Rohit Sharma is under no illusions that his team is invincible at home

"I don't necessarily think it's bold or brave, it's just me and Baz looking at the wicket and picking the XI that we think will give us the best chance. That's the XI we've gone with. It's very exciting for Tom Hartley to make his Test debut. Looking forward to seeing him out there, and captaining him. He's been very impressive in the buildup in Abu Dhabi. It's a team based around what we think will give us the best chance of winning this game."