Teams in flux square up for decider

July 3 -7, 2015
Start time 1000 local (0430 GMT)

With the series tied, it's tempting to invoke the idea of momentum. Pakistan have more experience, you might say, but Sri Lanka are more confident following the win at the P Sara Oval. But as unhelpful a gauge as momentum is normally, it's even less useful for matches between Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Already in this series, each team has proved capable of stirring highs and stinking lows. To add to this uncertainty: both teams are in flux. Pakistan will be forced to make at least two changes, and Sri Lanka, one. Tipping a winner is foolish. Better to defer to that classic captain's press conference line: "Whoever scores more runs and takes more wickets will win."

But if you must begin to hypothesise on who will be better at what, it becomes apparent that certain laws of the cricket universe have been thrown into contention. Pakistan's batting - no joke - seems to be more solid than the opposition's. With Kumar Sangakkara unavailable, Angelo Mathews is the only man in Sri Lanka's top seven with more than 20 Tests' experience. Pakistan have two recent centurions in addition to Younis Khan and Misbah-ul-Haq.

Just as surprisingly, Sri Lanka's bowling might be the team's stronger suit. Rangana Herath has only two wickets in two Tests, but while he holds the line at one end, Sri Lanka have bowlers who will hunt at the other. Tharindu Kaushal is a member of that critically endangered species: an unorthodox offspin bowler with a doosra, yet he's fearless in attack. Dhammika Prasad has suddenly become a reliable seam bowler, capable of delivering sustained probing spells.

Pakistan have changes to make to their attack, but will be encouraged by the enduring effectiveness of Yasir Shah in this series. At present, Sri Lanka don't seem to know what to do with him. The latest theory was that they could hit him off his length, but even when he is struck for a boundary, Yasir's accuracy and bite seems not to waver. His battle with a young top order promises to be as intriguing in Pallekele as it was in Galle and Colombo.

(last five matches, most recent first)

 Sri Lanka: WLLLW
Pakistan: LWWDL

Dinesh Chandimal equalled a Sri Lanka record when he claimed six dismissals behind the stumps in the second innings at the P Sara Oval, but that's not to say his keeping was flawless. There was the chance he wrongly did not attempt, reprieving eventual centurion Azhar Ali early in his innings, and another less damaging indiscretion towards the end of that innings. While other young batsmen have only their batting to worry about, Chandimal is tasked with developing in two disciplines. He's also perhaps the most naturally talented of Sri Lanka's top seven, but he has not hit a fifty in the series so far, and that will irk him.

Younis Khan's tour of Sri Lanka hasn't been as successful as past trips so far, with scores of 47, 6 and 40 from his three innings. In the second Test, he seemed genuinely troubled by the extra bounce and pace, and fell after extended hesitant periods. Pakistan have missed the Younis-Misbah partnership that has been the bedrock of so many of their good Test totals. After the second Test, Misbah said major contributions from himself and Younis were now overdue.

Upul Tharanga was drafted into the squad as replacement for Kumar Sangakkara, and despite other batsmen having been in the squad all along, it appears as if Tharanga will move straight into the No. 3 position. Kithuruwan Vithanage's middle order spot is also under threat from Kusal Perera.

The side strain Dushmantha Chameera sustained in Colombo has ruled him out of this match. Suranga Lakmal will likely replace him. If Sri Lanka opt for three seamers, as Lahiru Thirimanne said they were likely to do, Rangana Herath may have to sit out on form leaving Tharindu Kaushal as the sole spinner. Nuwan Pradeep would then step in as the third seamer.

Sri Lanka (probable): 1 Kaushal Silva, 2 Dimuth Karunaratne, 3 Upul Tharanga, 4 Lahiru Thirimanne, 5 Angelo Mathews (capt.), 6 Dinesh Chandimal (wk), 7 Kusal Perera, 8 Dhammika Prasad, 9 Tharindu Kaushal, 10 Rangana Herath/ Nuwan Pradeep, 11 Suranga Lakmal

Pakistan suffered a setback with an injury to their in-form bowler Wahab Riaz in the last game and they will miss experienced opener Mohammad Hafeez for the Test, after the ICC set a deadline of July 6 for the official retest of his bowling action. Pakistan have brought in Rahat Ali in place of Wahab while Shan Masood, another opener who is already with the team, could replace Hafeez in the playing XI.

Pakistan (likely): 1 Ahmed Shehzad, 2 Shan Masood, 3 Azhar Ali, 4 Younis Khan, 5 Misbah-ul-Haq (capt), 6 Asad Shafiq, 7 Sarfraz Ahmed (wk), 8 Yasir Shah, 9 Zulfiqar Babar, 10 Imran Khan/Rahat Ali, 11 Junaid Khan

It has rained all week in Kandy, and matches and June matches at Pallekele are ripe for rain interruptions. In three Tests at the venue, there is yet to be a result here, largely because of the weather. The pitch is expected to be helpful for seamers on day one, so if there is cloud cover overhead as well, the captain winning the toss may opt to bowl.

"It's good for seamers here, but spinners have also done well. Tharindu Kaushal bowled really well in the last match. It's likely that we will play three seamers and a spinner in this match."
Sri Lanka vice-captain Lahiru Thirimanne drops hints on team composition

"It's not difficult to come back after a loss, but somehow it's a reminder and an alert that we are not doing everything right."
Misbah-ul-Haq