Australia could be worth a sell

Ed Hawkins, a freelance cricket correspondent with a respected knowledge of the game, casts his eagle eye over a few of our World T20 spread betting prices.

When English cricket gave birth to Twenty20 in 2003 to boost the coffers of the county game, little did it realise that six years later it would return home, all grown up with a cocky swagger and enough bling to cause cataract damage to the old school duffers. When the World Twenty20 begins on Friday, with England taking on the Netherlands at Lord's in the first of 27 matches, it will mark the start of a period of domination for the thrash and bash format.

Its popularity is such because the game appeals to so many - except to the egg and bacon tie brigade - on so many levels. Including spread bettors. Short matches which can turn ball-by-ball, excitement, unpredictability and volatility make it the perfect game for spread betting. They are cosy bedfellows indeed.

All of the above, of course, means that when we begin to peruse the prices on the Outright Index we can find ourselves mumbling "they've got a great chance … and if so-and-so is in nick so do they … this team has the best draw" and so on. It is easy to make a case for any of the big eight teams to go well.

Group A will consist of India, Bangladesh and Ireland, Group B England, Holland and Pakistan, Group C Australia, West Indies and Sri Lanka and Group D South Africa, Scotland and New Zealand. India and South Africa at 27-30 (winner = 60pts, Runner-up = 40pts, losing semi-finalists = 20pts, eliminated at Super 8 stage = 10pts, eliminated at group stage = 0pts) are joint favourites, New Zealand are next at 20-23 followed by Australia at 19-22.

The most important factor to recognise about this market is that only two of India, South Africa and Australia can make the semi-finals because they will most certainly be paired - if matches run to form - in Group E, the second Super Eight section following the four preliminary groups. Only the top two go through to the semi-finals. It is a devilishly tricky group with England, at 17-20, expected to join them. Ordinarily it would be called the obligatory Group of Death but that honour goes to Group C with one of Australia, Sri Lanka or West Indies certain to go home early.

Australia look to be a tempting sell given their arduous route. They lost to Zimbabwe in the inaugural World Twenty20 in 2007 and have a win percentage of 52% which is inferior to both India (58%), the holders don't forget, and South Africa (61%).

This should mean that your eye is taken by sides on the other half of the draw. New Zealand are surprising third favourites because their win percentage of only 38% is the third worst of the top nine sides. They are buzzing after beating India on Monday, however, and in Ross Taylor and Daniel Vettori - the third highest Twenty20 wicket-taker - they have two gun players.

Pakistan, who should join them in Group F along with Bangladesh and (probably) Sri Lanka, are priced at 18-21. Avid Twenty20 followers will know that Pakistan have the best batsmen and bowlers in the world in this format.

Umar Gul, the paceman, has taken more wickets than anyone with 24. His team-mate, Shahid Afridi, is second with 22. It is a similar story in the top runscorer lists. Misbah is second with 422 runs and third is Shoaib Malik with 383. Unsurprisingly, Pakistan have the best win percentage of all the teams. It comes in at an incredible 76% and having only suffered three defeats, they could go one better than their runners-up spot last time.

The betting opportunities do not end there, though. Sporting Index offer for each team markets for total runs, run outs, fours, sixes and more. There is also the opportunity to bet on such outcomes for the tournament.

Tournament runs are pitched at 8225-8375 - average scores at the three venues of Lord, Trent Bridge and The Oval suggest first-innings scores will be between 155-160 - total wides are at 255-270 (207 wide balls in 2007), total fours at 720-760 (659 last time) and total sixes come in at 250-265 (265). All these markets are fascinating because they hinge on whether the minnow sides bat first or second in their games against the big boys. And even then we cannot be sure whether the Dutch will show more courage than expected or the Irish will come out fighting.

But that is the attraction of Twenty20.

Please note: these are the views and opinions of Ed Hawkins, not Sporting Index Ltd. This should not be taken as betting advice from Sporting Index Ltd.