Can anyone trust South Africa?

There is no side which cricket bettors trust less than South Africa. Too often in the past when they have expected to produce performances of vim, they have been more like Vimto. Pop! So it follows that for the four-Test series against England, Sporting Index's prices reflect a slight lack of faith in the hosts.

South Africa's failure to beat England in the one-day series when there was supposed to be a chasm between the sides has set the nerves jangling again. Sporting Index expect South Africa to win the series but only by a narrow margin.

With a series win index (25 points per Test won, 10 for a draw) quote of 55-59 for Graeme Smith's side and England rated at 35-39, a 2-1 victory is the pencilled in outcome. Unsurprisingly such a scoreline is the favourite on the correct score market (25 points for correct winner, 50 point bonus for the score) at 21-24. A 2-1 England win - a repeat of their 2004 triumph - is marked at 9-12.

It is likely that some followers will need some convincing that South Africa are not about to implode once more, although it must be said that they are usually only combustible in the one-day formats. They are actually a reliable Test outfit.

In fact, you could set your watch by them. Since 2000 (18 series) South Africa have lost only to Australia (three times) and England at home. They gave a right old fashioned thumping to England away from home last year and at the start of this they became the first side to win in Australia for 17 years.

One could even argue that the series could be as good as over following the first three games. At Centurion, venue for the first Test, and Cape Town, the third, South Africa are virtually untouchable. They have won 11 of their last 14 Tests at SuperSport Park and have lost just three at Newlands since 1970.

As ever, injury problems for both sides cloud the issue. Jacques Kallis (rib) is pivotal for South Africa while James Anderson (knee) is slightly less so for England. Perhaps the niggles cancel one another out.

If one cannot be sure of the respective strengths of the sides, then thank heavens for a plethora of series player markets to get by with. Sporting Index offer series runs, series ton-ups, performance markets and individual series bowling index. To make sense of the series runs (often the most popular market) it is often wise to compare the quote with a batsman's form over the last 12 months. Such a study reveals that AB De Villiers' runs could be worth a buy at 310. If he repeats his form with the willow, he should make up at exactly 400. Graeme Smith (whose returns suggest he will score 316 runs) could make him a sell at 335 and the same is true of Kallis (316) 330-350.

For England, Andrew Strauss (336) is the main man. He has scored 1,092 runs in the last 12 months but a quote of 330-350 is a little on the high side. Much attention will focus on South African-made Kevin Pietersen and Jonathan Trott. They have quotes of 325-345 and 300-320 respectively.

Another price that jumps off the page is the series performance quote for South African tyro Dale Steyn. Granted the paceman may not be at his fittest but there appears to be a discrepancy in terms of Sporting Index's rating and his record. The firm give him a mark of 425-455 (one point per run, 10 per catch, 20 per wicket). Over the last two years Steyn has an average make-up per Test which would see him total 516 if he plays every game.

A quote that looks too generous is the series bowling index for England's popular spinner, Graeme Swann. With a quote of 130-145, Sporting Index effectively have the Nottinghamshire man in for 13 wickets, a tall order indeed. In the last five years, only three spin bowlers (Shane Warne, Anil Kumble and Danish Kaneria) have taken 14 wickets or more in a series in South Africa. Even the most ardent Swann fan would be hard pressed to include him in such lofty company. If we exclude those luminaries, the mere mortal twirler averages 2.5 wickets per Test over the same study period. A repeat for Swann would see a healthy profit for sellers at such a price.