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General

Can England hold on?

It's deja vu all over again for South Africa and England after the third Test ended with the tourists somehow hanging on for a draw, a result which leaves England only needing to avoid defeat in the final Test, starting on Thursday, to clinch a series win

Simon Cambers
31-Dec-2009
The pressure is all on Graeme Smith and South Africa  •  Getty Images

The pressure is all on Graeme Smith and South Africa  •  Getty Images

It's deja vu all over again for South Africa and England after the third Test ended with the tourists somehow hanging on for a draw, a result which leaves England only needing to avoid defeat in the final Test, starting on Thursday, to clinch a series win.
As in the first Test, when England salvaged a draw thanks to some stout batting on the final day, the crucial thing now will be how do both sides respond afterwards.
After the first Test, South Africa could have been lifted by going so close, buoyed by the fact that they dominated the match. Instead they were distraught and couldn't raise themselves for another effort. England were a side reborn and thrashed them.
The same could easily happen again. You have to think that South Africa will be livid at again dominating a match and getting nothing for their efforts whil England now know that one good performance will be enough to give them the series.
Something inside me says that they may even pinch the final match. The fact that they bowled last in the second Test and then first in the third Test - back-to-back matches - left the attack shot. Having had several days off to recover, they should be firing on all cylinders again come Thursday.
Bet365 make the draw and a South Africa win joint favourites at 6/4 for the final Test, while England are 13/5. England actually won there in 2005 and in fact, South Africa have lost four of their past six Tests there and although that can be partially explained by two losses coming against Australia, the only two wins came against New Zealand.
The pitch at the Wanderers is expected to offer the pace bowlers a bit more than the other strips in the series and so it could all depend on the toss. There has been plenty of rain in Johannesburg recently so batting could be tough.
The pressure is squarely on South Africa now and they have rarely delivered in that kind of situation so it wouldn't surprise me if Kevin Pietersen suddenly woke up from his slumber and England won the match.
Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is Cricinfo's betting correspondent