Can South Africa deny Australia?

After their defeat in India, Australia bounced back to beat New Zealand but with all due respect, the Kiwis offered little resistance, so when Australia begin a three-Test series against South Africa on Wednesday, they are likely to receive a much greater examination.

It is a mark of how far Australia have fallen from their heady heights in the days of Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne that they are as big as 8/13 for a home series. South Africa are 3/1 and the draw is 10/3.

Doubts about the longevity of Matt Hayden and the inadequacies of a bowling attack that, without Warne, looks short on penetration and variety, mean that they are no longer feared to the extent they once were.

South Africa have not lost a Test series since 2006 and with a settled side, they will be quietly confident that they can cause a big upset, even if they have not won a series against Australia since their reintroduction to the Test arena, and even if the Aussies have not lost a Test series at home since 1992-3.

The news that Stuart Clark will be missing for the first Test, starting in Perth this Wednesday, is a big blow to Australia's hopes because he is exactly the kind of bowler that can break a side's resistance by his nagging line and sheer consistency.

Without him, Brett Lee will have to shoulder even more of a burden, while Mitchell Johnson will need to step up. Their spinners are average, to say the least, and South Africa are traditionally good players of the turning ball.

Australia's batting remains good, of course, even if Hayden is misfiring. Strangely, the left-hander has never played South Africa at home, with all 10 of his Tests against them having come on foreign soil. The Aussies will need him to come good if they are to compete as they would like.

If not, Ricky Ponting will, like Brett Lee in the bowling department, shoulder a big burden in terms of making runs, although at least he should be able to rely on the likes of Michael Hussey and Michael Clarke for help.

It is clear that South Africa have probably the best chance they have ever had of snatching a series win against the Aussies, but I'd be surprised if they manage it.

They have only ever won one Test in Australia before, and there is more than a hint of mental weakness on their part when it comes to playing the world's top side. Australia will continue to taunt South Africa with the tag of chokers, and even though they have a good side, I find it hard to see how they can actually win the series.

That said, they could have enough to draw it, which would be enough of a kick in the teeth for the Australians, putting them up against it when they then go to South Africa in the new year and then go to England for the Ashes.

For the record, a 2-0 win for Australia is the favourite in the correct score markets, at 10/3, while interestingly a 1-1 draw is next at 9/2, the same price as a 2-1 win for the home side. A 1-0 win and 3-0 win for the Aussies are both 6/1.

It's 10/1 that South Africa win 1-0 and 3-0, while a 2-0 win is 14/1. It is 33/1 that South Africa complete a whitewash, while you can get 20/1 on three draws.