Deflated Pakistan have no chance

After the way Australia somehow managed to win the second Test when they had absolutely no right to suggests that the third and final Test, beginning in Hobart next Thursday, is a foregone conclusion against a deflated Pakistan side.

The way Pakistan let Australia off the hook by having a horribly defensive field on the final day when they should have attacked to take the last two wickets smacked of a horribly conservative attitude and came back to bite them in the face.

They can react in one of two ways. Either they are lifted by the fact that they got so close to winning a Test in Australia, or they are totally deflated and offer little resistance in Hobart.

I have to say that I fear for the latter, from Pakistan's point of view. I don't see how the mental downer of not finishing off the job at the SCG can fail to persist and affect the way they play in Hobart, where Australia have never lost a Test, winning six and drawing the other two of the eight encounters there.

The only thing in their favour is that Australia don't need to win, having already wrapped up the series, but I still think they win and bet365 are again being slightly generous in making them only 4/6 to win the match. Pakistan are 9/2 and the draw is a 12/5 chance.

The weather can be another factor in Hobart but given the speed of Test cricket these days, you often don't need the full five days to bring about a result so Australia should have plenty of time to get the job done.

Australia are likely to be unchanged - their win really masked the fact that Marcus North is struggling - while Pakistan could bring back Mohammad Aamer while wicket-keeper Kamran Akmal could be vulnerable with reports suggesting Sarfraz Ahmed is flying in as a potential replacement.