Draw odds-on as England rally

Andrew Strauss and Jonathan Trott joined forces to lift England to 88-1 at stumps on day two of the first Test against South Africa at Centurion on Thursday and with the pitch looking fairly benign, bet365 have slashed the draw to 4/9.

It's no foregone conclusion that England will match, or even get near, South Africa's first innings total of 418 - they can still collapse at times - but if they bat sensibly, they should be fine, even if there is a bit of variable bounce and a fair bit of spin.

Bet365 don't seem to think too much untoward will happen and make the draw now 4/9, while South Africa have drifted right out to 7/2. Interestingly, England have actually been cut slightly, coming in from 6/1 to 5/1.

On the face of it, that may seem a bit odd, but on closer inspection it makes sense, for if England can get something like 600, then on a turning pitch, Graeme Swann could be a real handful for the South Africa batsmen second time round. He took five wickets in the first innings so on a wearing pitch, he could be lethal.

There's an awful long way to go before that possibility becomes even half-probable, though, and in the meantime, captain Strauss is 5/6 to go from 44 overnight to 86 or better, and 5/4 to make a century.

Trott, looking for his second century in his second Test, is 5/6 to go from his overnight total of 18 to 57 or better, while you can get 11/4 on him making it to his hundred.

Original preview
England have enjoyed a pretty good build-up to the first Test against South Africa and with the home side having one or two problems, the tourists could be good value to claim success in the series opener at Centurion, which begins on Wednesday.

Much will depend on whether Jacques Kallis is fit to play in the first match but at this stage it looks as if he won't - or if he does, he will not bowl - which will be a big blow to the experince, balance and quality of the South Africa side.

Bet365 have changed their minds and having made South Africa narrow favourites initially, now make the draw favourite at 21/20. South Africa are now 23/20 and England have been cut from 3/1 to 13/5, which is still a reasonable price, providing the weather (that has been atrocious so far) holds. England have won once and drawn the other two matches at Centurion since South Africa's readmittance to the Test arena.

The addition of Jonathan Trott has made a massive difference to the England batting line-up and all of a sudden their top six looks really rather solid. Captain Andrew Strauss and Alastair Cook are both in form and have a good understanding together. Trott at No 3 has been superb since he came into the team last summer, and Kevin Pietersen, Paul Collingwood and perhaps Ian Bell complete a fine top six.

The balance of the team will be crucial because England would love to be able to rely on three seamers and the spin of Graeme Swann, enabling Matt Prior to bat at No 7 and Stuart Broad at No 8. The problem is the fitness of James Anderson and Ryan Sidebottom - if they can't be trusted to get through the match - then Bell could be dropped in favour of an extra bowler.

Either way, though, England will fancy their chances against a South Africa side that also has a good batting line-up but a relatively weak bowling attack, one that would be weakened further by the loss of Kallis.

Despite England's uncanny ability to collapse - even now - I can't see South Africa taking 20 wickets, while England perhaps possess that bit of extra variety that could prove crucial.

Pietersen due big runs
The one great thing for England is that Pietersen has yet to hit form and they are still playing well. Unless something has gone dramatically wrong, Pietersen will find his touch when it matters most and playing against Suoth Africa usually brings out the best in him.

Such is Strauss's superb form that he and Pietersen share favouritism to top-score for England in their first innings, at 3/1, but I think we might see something special from Pietersen this time.

Trott is a 4/1 chance, Cook is 9/2 and both Collingwood and Bell are 6/1. I like Bell a lot better at No 6 than at No 3. He seems a lot more relaxed and having him there offers a bit of class down the order, which never hurts.

South Africa captain Graeme Smith will shoulder more of the batting burden if Kallis doesn't play and bet365 make him 3/1 favourite to top-score in their first innings. Strangely, Smith only averages 30 at Centurion, though, so one of the others could be better value.

Kallis, who averages 60 there and 84.50 there against England, is next at 7/2, while AB De Villiers is 4/1, Hashim Amla and JP Duminy 5/1 and Ashwell Prince 11/2.

Once bet365 put out their prices for top bowler we'll have a look through them, but at the moment, the form of Swann is encouraging for England and he could just make the difference.