England drifting for series win

With no Michael Vaughan, no Simon Jones and no Marcus Trescothick, England will go into the Ashes series with a below-strength side and knowing they will have to play even better than they did last year if they are to beat the Australians again and the home side have been cut again, now 1/5 (1.20) for victory.

Ever since they came out on the losing side of one of the most exciting series in recent memory, Ricky Ponting's side have been building towards the next seven weeks ready to throw everything at England in a bid to regain the Ashes.

Nothing matters to England and Australia like th Ashes and the improvement in England over the past few years means this series is one of the most eagerly-anticipated of all. Can Australia re-establish themselves at the top of the Test tree or will England, who against all the odds have become hugely resilient, retain the Ashes and become the first England side to win a series Down Under since Mike Gatting's men won in 1986-87.

Despite some encouraging signs in their draw with New South Wales, the news that Trescothick is returning home with a recurrence of a stress-related illness has prompted bet365 to push England out to 11/2 (6.50) with Australia now 1/5 (1.20) and the drawn series an even longer shot at 10/1 (11.00).

Let's start with the simple facts. Australia have won 14 and lost just two of their past 20 Tests. Those two were the two they lost to England in the last Ashes series, so it's pretty obvious that they are still close to the top of their game, if not absolutely at their peak. Go back a bit further and they have lost just four of their past 40 Tests, a phenomenal record. At home, they have lost just three of their past 50 Tests and only one in their last 20.

In the 20 Tests between the two sides on Australian soil since the 1986-87 series, Australia have lost just three times and none of them came before the fourth Test in any of the three series. The Aussies won 3-0 in 1990-91, 3-1 in 1994-95, 3-1 in 1998-99 and last time, when the series was over as a contest within 11 days of competition, it was 4-1 when England salvaged a tiny bit of pride with victory at Sydney in the final Test.

Australia have not lost a series at home since 1992-1993 when they were beaten by West Indies and since then their domination has been almost unbroken. Believe it or not, the favourite in the correct score markets is a 4-0 win to the Aussies, a 4/1(5.00) chance. A 3-1 win is next, at 5/1 (6.00), the same price as a 5-0 whitewash, which has come right in over the last few days.

The shortest price for an England win is 18/1 (19.00) for a 2-1 victory. A 2-2 draw is 10/1 (11.00).

Taking that into account, it seems an awful lot to ask for England to beat Australia on their own soil. However, the suspicion is that the Aussies are an ageing side who may be past their best. And the great thing from England's point of view is that they do not even have to win the series to retain the Ashes - a drawn series will do.

Fading Australia?
The return of Glenn McGrath has been a major boost to Australia's hopes. "Pigeon" didn't play in the two defeats in England last summer and he has improved with each stint in the past couple of weeks. Shane Warne is still the world's best bowler - of any form - while Brett Lee has really stepped up and the likes of Mitchell Johnson and Nathan Bracken are waiting in the wings. The one worry is that with McGrath and Warne in their mid-to-late 30s, any injury could put them out of the series and and if either man is missing, Australia's attack will be hugely weakened.

Moreover, the way Kevin Pietersen and captain Andrew Flintoff smashed McGrath, Lee, Bracken and Stuart Clark - another Test hopeful - all over the place in the three-day Tour game suggests they may not have the hold over England's batsmen that they have enjoyed in the past.

Their batting isn't what it was either. Ponting has slipped from the superlative form he showed in the Ashes and shortly afterwards, Matthew Hayden and Justin Langer have not played in a while and their middle order has been struggling. Adam Gilchrist has picked up of late, but England had him under their spell in the last series, while Michael Clarke has yet to prove himself as a consistent performer at the top level.

As for England, the way they have coped with injuries and illness since the Ashes has been admirable and they really believe they are winners now, which is half the battle. Since losing in India in 2001/02, they have lost just two series and of course, beaten the Australians.

England batting
The loss of Trescothick is a blow as the Somerset man can destroy any attack when he is on song. However, he has a poor record against the Australians and it's obvious that a player out of form will be found out. His stress-related illness needs treating, but what it does mean is that Alastair Cook will probably open the batting, while both Ian Bell and Paul Collingwood can now play, which removes one dilemma for Duncan Fletcher and the selectors.

It almost goes without saying that for England to succeed, they need a good foundation at the top of the order and Andrew Strauss and Cook should enjoy the hard, fast pitches they should find in Australia. With Flintoff and Pietersen to add the firepower in the middle order, they have the batsmen to do some damage.

The loss of Jones is the biggest blow of all. His ability to produce reverse swing with the ball was a major factor in the win last year and he will be missed. However, if Steve Harmison can find his rhythm, Flintoff can bowl enough to trouble the Aussies and Monty Panesar can withstand the taunting of the Aussies then they have a chance.

So much will depend on the way they get on in the first Test. If they can avoid defeat in Brisbane, it will give them a huge belief that they can get a result in the series.

The Aussies are virtually unbackable at the odds, so the only value call is a drawn series at 10/1 (11.00).