England's weak tail already reaping dividends

Those of you who followed the advice to sell England's Tails of the Unexpected market with Sporting Index could already have taken a profit after the first Test, but it may well be worth holding out for the rest of the series.

This is one of my favourite markets, as it concerns the aggregate number of runs scored by numbers 8, 9,10 and 11 of one side during the series.

You need to look at the likely strength of the bottom four in whichever side, take into account the overall strengths of each side (if one is dominant, then they may not bat twice, all the way down, in each match), and also the weather forecast.

Sporting Index set their quote for England, before the first Test, at 195-210 and for New Zealand at 290-305.

From the outright fixed odds preview, you will know that I think that England are by far the stronger of the two sides.

New Zealand are short on experience, particularly in the batting department after the retirement of Stephen Fleming, and their middle order will be under a lot of pressure to dig themselves out of trouble, if things go as they ought to.

New Zealand's quote seems a little high, but because they are the underdogs, given enough time in each match, the chances are they will bat through their innings twice, which gives them six innings each, making a total of 24 innings.

The spread reckons on an average of around 13 per person, which, when you consider that Daniel Vettori, who averages 27, and Tim Southee, who hit an unbeaten 77 on his debut against England in the winter, then that could be a touch low. In New Zealand this winter, their total was 421, which would be a very handy win for buyers this time.

The forecast for the first match always looked like it might ruin the chances for buyers of New Zealand, though, and therefore the advice was to sell England at 195.

Take advantage of England's poor tail
That might have seemed risky, but England's bottom four is pretty hopeless, with the exception of Stuart Broad, who can bat a bit. Him apart, though, Ryan Sidebottom, Monty Panesar and James Anderson are pretty woeful and the chances of them getting too many runs looks pretty low.

In New Zealand, their total was 230 in three Tests, but Tim Ambrose batted at eight in one of the matches and made a half-century, so that can immediately be taken out. The side looks pretty set for the first two matches and perhaps the whole series, so I can't see any heroics coming from those four.

In their past three home series when only three Tests were played, England's bottom four totalled 129, 113 and 189, all short of the current quote.

After the Lord's Test, the total stands at just 41, and the new price is 175-185, which means sellers could already take 10 times their stake and sit back and relax.

However, the 175-185 is clearly on the stingy side, given just 41 runs coming in the first match, even if England batted only once. The chances are that the same scenario may happen in at least one of the two remaining Tests, so the advice would be to let it run. I can't see anyone in the bottom four making too many runs against a disciplined New Zealand attack.

The only proviso with selling this market is the scenario that comes into play when the team use a nightwatchman, meaning the number seven, in this case, Ambrose, would bat at eight and potentially strengthen it. But, that rarely happens, and you have to just take the chance if you are selling.

If England are on top, then it's unlikely all four will bat twice in each match, and if a few days are washed out along the way, then so much the better. New Zealand's strength at the moment is their bowling, so they are unlikely to let the tail get too many bonus runs.