Follow batsmen for Lord's success

It would be fair assume that when the respective players of England and Australia enter Lord's through the Grace Gates on Thursday morning for the start of the second Ashes Test, the batsmen will have a skip in their stride while the bowlers will be digging in their heels, like cattle to the slaughter.

The famous old ground's reputation as a batsman's paradise is now almost as deserved as it is for being the epitome of austerity. Punters planning their bets for the contest should be severe too in their belief that it is the willowmen they want to be with.

Indeed, while much talk among the wider cricketing fraternity will be about how England and Australia are going to react following the thrilling draw in the first Test in Cardiff, it is those who concentrate on the facts rather than the fiction that will be best served to give Sporting Index a rough time.

The facts are this: in the last seven Tests bat has dominated ball to the extent that six of those matches have ended in stalemate, in the last 10 there have been 10 scores of 400 or more and in 2003 South Africa made 682-6d, the second highest total at the venue.

Immediately the attention turns to the runs markets when perusing Sporting's prices. First to catch the eye is the match ton-ups quote (aggregate total of players' runs over 100) of 82-90, a price which reflects the traditional run feasts. If anything it is slightly high. Although there have been an incredible 15 centuries in the last five Tests, the average ton-ups mark per game is 69. Still, when you consider that in the England v South Africa Test last summer there were six tons producing a ton-ups make-up of 193, the potential downside of a sell is great indeed.

Going against the batsmen is far from advisable on a flat wicket. One would need nerves of steel to get against any of England's top six for example, given their respective records. There are 13 centuries between them. Andrew Strauss averages 58 (three tons), Alastair Cook 59 (2), Ravi Bopara 143 (1), Kevin Pietersen 72 (4), Paul Collingwood 41 (2) and Matt Prior 58 (1).

With the opportunity to wager on a batsman's match runs and match ton-ups, the stand out prices for the patriots could well be Strauss' runs at 77-84, Collingwood's at 60-67 (his form from Cardiff will surely see him supported) and Pietersen's ton-ups available to buy at 13.

The man to follow for Australia, inevitably, will be Ricky Ponting following his majestic 150 in game one. Interestingly, he averages only 17.50 in Tests at HQ. His match runs are quoted at 80-87 and his ton-ups at 9-12. Michael Clarke, with 91 in the second innings of the first Test there in 2005, and Phillip Hughes, 183 runs in his one appearance for Middlesex this summer, could well be value alternatives.

If putting your faith in a couple of batsmen is not for you, there are other bets of a more cat and mouse nature.

A good way to make the scoreboard pay on the spreads is to attempt to predict when runs will be scored. For example, buying a team's total runs when you are expecting a partnership or getting long of the fall of the next wicket market. Both markets move as runs are scored so essentially you can place a bet on a particular batting pair to score, say, 50 runs and then close your bet for a profit once they have done so or when the price has moved beyond the one you struck your bet at. The key is knowing when runs will be scored.

At Lord's we know it is a good surface for batting but runs come easier at some stages than others. There have been 30 partnerships of 100 runs or more in the last ten Tests, the most profitable being the fourth wicket pairing with seven. Next best are the second and sixth wickets which have each contributed six partnerships of 100 or more.

Sporting make Australia 12.5-14 favourites (25pts for a win, 10 for a draw, 0 for a loss) with England 9-10.5. Following their dominance in Cardiff (this correspondent had Ponting's side winning at least 11 sessions) and their astonishing record at HQ - only one defeat in the previous century - it is more than justified.

However, England cannot be written off because it is their batsmen who are the architects of Lord's reputation for runs. In the last seven times that they have batted first, they have posted 500 or more in five of those innings. And in the last 10 Tests, eight times have the side batting first taken a first-innings lead. If any selling is to be done, it could well be Australia at 15 on the first-innings runs supremacy market.