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General

Home advantage could be key

India and South Africa - together with Australia the two best Test sides in the world - go head to head in a two-match series, starting this weekend and there is very little to choose from the two, which makes picking the winner that bit more difficult

Simon Cambers
03-Feb-2010
MS Dhoni will hope his batting line-up cope with the loss of Rahul Dravid  •  Associated Press

MS Dhoni will hope his batting line-up cope with the loss of Rahul Dravid  •  Associated Press

India and South Africa - together with Australia the two best Test sides in the world - go head to head in a two-match series, starting this weekend and there is very little to choose from the two, which makes picking the winner that bit more difficult.
Of course, India have home advantage and we all know how good they are at home and how playing on the sub-continent is never an easy task for touring sides. South Africa go into the series on the back of a 1-1 draw with England, while India beat Bangladesh easily.
The home side will be without Rahul Dravid because of injury and that's a real shame because the great man had been in a rich vein of form of late. How his absence affects the balance of the batting line-up will be crucial to their hopes.
The two sides are well-matched, with strong batting and a decent pace attack, with Zaheer Khan and Ishant Sharma leading the way for India, up against Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel for South Africa. The support cast is pretty good too, though India surely have the better options in terms of spin, with Harbhajan Singh itching to get at the South Africans.
It's only a couple of years since South Africa were last in India and the two sides drew a three-Test series 1-1. For this two-Test series, Bet365 make India favourites at 21/20 while South Africa are 11/4 and the draw is just 2/1.
There is unlikely to be too much in it, though, which explains why a 1-0 win for India is the favourite in the correct score markets, at 21/20. A 1-0 win for South Africa and a 0-0 draw are both 4/1, while a 1-1 draw and a 2-0 win for India are each 9/2, with a 2-0 whitewash for South Africa the outsider at 12/1.
The ever-brilliant Sachin Tendulkar and the brilliant and destructive Virender Sehwag are both 11/4 favourites to be India's top runscorer in the series. Both men average more than 50 and should not find South Africa's attack that daunting, even if Steyn is a fine bowler.
Both men cut and pull well so Steyn's bounce should not trouble them and one of them is very likely to come out on top. If not, then Gautam Gambhir is a possibility at 3/1. Captain MS Dhoni is 6/1, with Murali Vijay 7/1 and VVS Laxman 15/2.
Like India, South Africa's batting is dominated by two men - captain Graeme Smith and Jacques Kallis - and the two men share favouritism to be top runscorer for their side, at 11/4. Kallis had a great series against England and is likely to carry on that form.
AB De Villiers is on offer at 4/1, Hashim Amla is 5/1 and Ashwell Prince is a 6/1 chance, with JP Duminy, probably the only other man who could get amongst them, an 8/1 bet.
Harbhajan edges Zaheer in the betting to be top India bowler and that seems fair enough. Bet365 make him 7/4, with Zaheer 15/8 and Ishant Sharma 7/2. Steyn is 7/4 favourite to be South Africa's top bowler, just ahead of Morkel, at 11/5.
I think India's home record may just give them the edge here and would rather take the 21/20 on that happening than risk any money on the correct scoreline, when the two are so well matched.
Cambers' Call
India to beat South Africa in Test series - 21/20 bet365
Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is Cricinfo's betting correspondent