India take total control in Hamilton

Sachin Tendulkar's 42nd Test century helped put India in total and utter control after day three of the first Test in Hamilton and it is hard to see anything other than a win for the visitors in the first game of the three-Test series.

New Zealand trail by 166 runs with only seven wickets remaining and I just can't see them holding out long enough, or setting India anything difficult to get batting last. At this rate the match could be over inside three days, which would be pretty sad for the home side.

Bet365 now make India 2/11 favourites to win it - how are they even that long? - while New Zealand are 40/1 and the draw is 4/1. Unless there is an awful lot of rain around over the next few days, and in New Zealand that is entirely possible, the draw would seem to be much more unlikely than that.

Bet365 make New Zealand 5/6 to take their total from 75-3 overnight to 311 or more, which is quite a task, in my opinion. Daniel Flynn, who has 24 runs to his name, is 5/6 to make 58 or more.

Original preview
It is a bizarre anomaly that India have not won a series in New Zealand for four decades, but it is surely about to be put right with a confident India beginning the Test series as huge favourites. And they look a good price to get off to a good start with victory in the first Test, which starts on Wednedsay.

The two teams have not played a series in New Zealand since 2002 so to my mind, the history will be of little not going into this one, especially as many of the players have never played there.

Of course, the likes of Sachin Tendulkar and Rahul Dravid have, but Tendulkar has been in great form and even Dravid scored a century recently in a warm-up game. Both men are stalwarts of the India side and improve them so I am not concerned that they will be burdened by history. They are better than that.

Also, India duly destroyed New Zealand in the one-day series - the first time they had won one of those in the country - so they like bucking trends. However, the real trend is that they are very much a Test side on the up and they could even hit the No 1 spot in the next year.

New Zealand, on the other hand, are a side that always prove to be better than the sum of their parts - I know it's a cliche, but it's true. In Daniel Vettori, they have a world-class spinner and an excellent captain, and in Ross Taylor they have a man who could become a world-class batsman.

But beyond that they are a hotch-potch, while India have Sehwag, Gambhir, Tendulkar, Dravid, Laxman and Yuvraj, not to mention Dhoni, Zaheer, Sharma and Harbhajan.

On paper, it looks hugely one-sided, so it's a surprise to me that India are 11/8 to win the match, compared to New Zealand's 6/1 and the favourite, the draw at 21/20. Weather can be the only reason for this - it is notoriously unpredictable down here - but even that might not be enough to stop India, especially as New Zealand have not even won a Test since beating Bangladesh in October.

India are unbeaten in Tests since their defeat in Sri Lanka last August - beating England and of course Australia.

New Zealand have won six, lost two and drawn six of their Tests in Hamilton, which is not bad at all, but on a flat pitch, they are surely going to have trouble bowling India out twice.

Virender Sehwag, who plundered runs at will in the one-day series, is favourite at 10/3 to be India's top runscorer in the first innings. Tendulkar is next at 4/1, the same price as both Gambhir and Dravid. The latter will have happy memories of this ground, though, having scored 341 runs in two Tests there.

Murali Vijay is 5/1, VV Laxman and Yuvraj Singh both tempting at 6/1 and Dhoni is 9/1.

For New Zealand, Taylor is the obvious favourite at 3/1, with Jesse Ryder 9/2 - the same price as McIntosh, Guptill and Flynn. Brendan McCullum, who is always dangerous, 5/1, with James Franklin 12/1 and Vettori 16/1.

If India play anywhere near their best, then they should win this and 11/8 is too good a price to turn down.