India value to be found on spreads

If, like me, you feel that India hold the upper hand against England when the two sides meet on Wednesday, you should take a look at the spread betting markets for that is where the value lies.

Monitoring the spread betting markets during the World Twenty20 has been tougher than normal because of the lack of time between matches but I have to believe that Sporting Index have made a mistake in making England favourites to win the match.

As explained in the fixed odds preview, though even victory against India will not now be enough to put them through, while the Indians know that their fate is in their own hands and that makes a big difference.

England's morale is about as low as it could be and India, who should have beaten New Zealand in their opening match of the Super Eight stage, should be primed to take advantage.

Sporting make England 0-8 favourites, with 10 points per wicket won by and one per run won by. Considering that I can't see how England should even be favourites - and if India bat first I'll be even more confident because England cannot chase totals - that has to be worth selling.

Ok, so England may take some confidence having pinched a 4-3 victory over India in the recent one-day series, but that was then and this is now, with both teams completely changed.

India may be without Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid and Sourav Ganguly but England are struggling and the drama surrounding captain Paul Collingwood's visit to a strip club on the eve of the South Africa game cannot help.

India have a chance to qualify and have to win. England can't qualify. Go with India and sell at zero.