Is the draw a plausible bet?

Nerve-jangling. Nailbiting. Squeaky bum time. So just another Test match then for the spread bettor as England and Australia meet at the Oval in the final Ashes Test. While the respective nations work themselves into a frenzy of agitation, it is just another day at the office. Welcome to our world. In this sphere, reality is king. A successful gambler is the child of research, conceived in the fashion of two strangers; without passion or flair.

In the last few days the punter has not spent his time daydreaming about an England comeback that would book block Trafalgar Square for weeks of parties or an Australia triumph to send into raptures everyone under the Southern Cross.

Instead, as soon as he saw Sporting chalk up England at 9-9.5 on the win index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 0 for a loss) and Australia 13-14.5 he has been working out just how possible a draw is. The answer is very likely. Granted there have only been three in the last 12 Tests at The Oval but of the last six there when a series has been alive, four have ended in stalemate.

Add to the equation the ground's reputation for runs and Australia have the perfect scenario to protect the 1-1 scoreline which will see them return down under with the Ashes in their pocket. To that end, Australia, who are currently making up at 45, are 58-59.5 on the series win index (25 points per Test won, 10 per draw) with England 53-54.5.

In Tests since 2000 the average first-innings score is a whopping 422. If Australia manage to bat first and post such a score they are almost certainly home and hosed. England will have to do something crafty indeed to put time back into the Test. Basing a wager on such a belief would be to take the gambler out of his comfort zone, although there could be the potential for value on the Series Volcano (a prediction of the total aggregate series runs scored by England versus the series runs scored by Australia) quote at 239-254, currently making up at 214 in favour of the Aussies, if the hosts need to make a declaration.

There are other specials to tempt. With only one match to go, special bets for the series become one-off match bets. For example, one can gamble on the aggregate numbers of runs England Nos 8-11 will score (542-550, current make-up 462), the number of wides (40-41, 31) or boundary sixes (20.25-21.25, 13). However, stats are our comfort blanket and there are plenty of betting opportunities to become wrapped up in. Thanks to the Oval historically favouring batsmen we can get long with confidence of some selected willowmen.

The first to like is Andrew Strauss (81-88 match runs). England's form batsman scored 129 against Australia on this ground four years ago and he has a respectable average of 37. Shane Watson (68-75) could go well, too. He struck a brilliant 132 for Hampshire against Surrey in a Friends Provident Trophy match in 2005 and has a score of 88 in his one first-class game. It is no coincidence that both men are openers. In the last nine first innings of the match, a No 1 or 2 batsman has top-scored five times.

If you prefer to sell a batsman then you could do worse than Ian Bell (66-73), who is expected to bat at No 3. Bell, perceived to crumble in the pressure games, has a horrible record batting there for England. With no centuries in 16 Tests at that position the downside looks slim.

Other potential trades involve the gun players of both sides, Andrew Flintoff and Mitchell Johnson. Flintoff, in his last hurrah, would be an emotional buy on his performance at 114-122 (1 point per run, 10 per catch, 20 per wicket) were it not for the numbers backing it up.

He has an average make-up of 127. Johnson should be dangerous because of his ability to swing the ball both ways and Ricky Ponting has already stated that the art of bending the ball could be key. His bowling performance is 40-45 (10 pts per wicket taken, 25 bonus for five-wicket haul in an innings). Getting long of that certainly beats doing the same for any spinner on show. Only 23% of wickets at The Oval have fallen to twirlers since 2000.

So with the research and statistics out of the way, we can take our seats for an eagerly anticipated contest. We'll still be on the edge of them, though.