It's England v Murali again

As it was in the first Test, the final day of the second Test will come down to how well England's batsmen can cope with the wiles of Muttiah Muralitharan. Trailing by 149 with all their second-innings wickets in hand, England will fancy their chances of survival but Sri Lanka will still believe they can skittle England to win the series with a match to spare.

The difference between Colombo and Kandy is that England know that if they score enough runs, then Sri Lanka will have to bat again, so it's not just a question of survival, something that changes a batsman's mindset.

The pitch is turning, but slowly, so Muralitharan will not quite be as lethal as he was in Kandy, but I'd still be wary of making any bold predictions of a draw, even if bet365 believe that will happen, making it the 1/5 (1.20) favourite.

A few early wickets on the final day could cause ructions in the England dressing-room and Sri Lanka, at 10/3 (4.33), could yet emerge as winners, a victory that would give them an unassailable 2-0 lead. England, for the record, are 100/1.

Much will depend on the efforts of England's openers, Michael Vaughan and Alastair Cook on the final morning. Vaughan looked in superb touch on the fourth evening, easing to 28 with some sumptuous drives, and bet365 go 5/6 that he goes on to make 64 or more.

Cook, who kept his concentration well for his unbeaten 19, is 5/6 to make 53 or better. England are the same price to reach 271 or more, a total, depending on how long it takes them, that ought to be just about enough to bat out the day, if they are smart.