KKR, Royals favourites in five-team race
IPL scenarios - Kolkata Knight Riders and Rajasthan Royals are all but into the last four, along with Kings XI Punjab and Chennai Super Kings

Kolkata Knight Riders, on a five-match winning streak, are favourites to finish in the top four • BCCI
Had Royals won their previous match against Mumbai Indians, they would have made the playoffs with 16 points. However, without Ajinkya Rahane, Pravin Tambe and Steven Smith, Royals lost by 25 runs and must now win at least one of their remaining two matches. Defeat against Kings XI and Mumbai will leave them dependent on the results of matches not involving them.
Knight Riders, on a five-match winning streak, are favourites to qualify for the playoffs. They need to win only one of their remaining two games and will enjoy home advantage at Eden Gardens. If they lose both games, however, Knight Riders will be dependent on net run rate if Royal Challengers, Sunrisers or Mumbai make it to 14 points.
Royal Challengers have to win their last two games to make it to 14 points and also need either Royals or Knight Riders (or both) to lose their remaining matches. A huge win at Eden Gardens is vital because such a result will erode Knight Riders' net run rate, while improving Royal Challengers'. If Royals and Knight Riders manage to win one game each, Royal Challengers are out.
The equation for Sunrisers is similar to that of Royal Challengers, except their net run rate is slightly worse. They play the same opposition as Royal Challengers and would give themselves an outside chance by beating Knight Riders by a large margin.
Mumbai, like Royal Challengers and Sunrisers, have to win both remaining games to get to 14 points. Their net run rate is better than that of Sunrisers and Royal Challengers and a big win like that against Kings XI will boost their chances. If both Royal Challengers and Sunrisers lose at least one game, and Royals lose to Kings XI, the last league match, Indians v Royals, will be a knockout*.
If Kings XI win one of their last two games, they will finish either first or second and have two opportunities to qualify for the final. They enjoy a strong net run rate too. Super Kings have to win both their remaining games to be a certainty in the top two. If they do not, they will be dependent on net run rate and other results. Apart from Kings XI and Super Kings, Royals and Knight Riders also have a chance of finishing in the top two.
Shiva Jayaraman is a sub-editor (stats) at ESPNcricinfo.com