Pakistan's best opportunity in years

With due pardon to England and South Africa, no country would be as happy to be not facing Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne anymore as Pakistan. In 14 Tests the pair played together against Pakistan, they picked up a staggering 157 wickets between them, leading to 11 wins and only two losses; pace and spin have never been, and are unlikely to ever again be, this potent, at least until Usain Bolt signs up with Max Clifford. Largely because of the two, Pakistan have lost nine Tests in a row to Australia. They've come close to winning only one. In hip-hop parlance, Pakistan has long been Australia's she-dog.

The pair's reign brought out the worst truths about Pakistan's batting; McGrath exposed inadequacies with bounce and indiscipline outside off and Warne burst open regularly and brutally the myth that Pakistan could play spin. They have only ever played Indian spin well. Now, as more teams are discovering, they will also find out that Australia without that pair is not the same Australia at all. Now, for the first time in nearly 15 years, Pakistan have their best chance to do anything other than be thrashed by Australia. A Test win is not beyond them, though a first-ever series win in the country probably is.

"That was a top bowling attack and those two were the best in the world," Yousuf, who averaged under 30 against them, said. "That is all in the past now. I want to be realistic about our chances this time round. This is not Twenty20. We need to play good cricket over five whole days, not just a session or two."

Many things will have to go right for the realism to come through, not least the batting. Yousuf is another in a long line of Pakistani batsmen to have fared poorly against Australia, though at least he has the memory of a shimmering Boxing Day hundred in 2004-05 to fall back on. Younis Khan is not around, so the burden on Yousuf and the Akmal brothers down the order is already inordinately great.

The younger Umar scored big in Australia on an A tour against a handy attack earlier this year which bodes well. Mostly, just the prospect of watching a rare and genuine batting talent is enough and only excitability can do him in; at nets on Friday, he was the last man to leave and that too only after Waqar Younis, the bowling and fielding coach, told him to so as to ensure he is relaxed before the Test. But one of the openers and one from the middle order of Faisal Iqbal or Misbah-ul-Haq will have to produce something somewhere.

And though spilt catches do not always mean lost matches in Pakistan's case - they dropped six in Wellington and still won comfortably - they cannot afford to be lax here of all places. They have an attack that creates a fair amount of work in the slips and the absence of Younis, in that regard, becomes doubly harmful.

The brightest prospects for a Pakistan win, however, revolve around their pace attack. Pakistan's finest moments in Australia historically have been pace-oriented. Imran Khan's Sydney 12, Sarfraz Nawaz's Melbourne spell of seven for one, Wasim Akram's coming of age in 1990-91, a couple of Shoaib Akhtar spells in the 2000s; what cheer there has been has come from fast bowlers. This time, Mohammad Asif, Mohammad Aamer and Umar Gul combine to give Pakistan a lovely shape where most angles, save perhaps extreme pace, are covered. They should enjoy the conditions here. Danish Kaneria has fond memories of Australia too but the suspicion is that he will be a fine foil to any success, rather than an instigator.

The package can be a formidable one, as Ricky Ponting acknowledged. "They're a better team than West Indies, a more skilled group of players, no doubt about that," Ponting said. "We know with Pakistan when they put their best foot forward they are a very, very good cricket team, no doubt, Tests, ODIs and Twenty20. They have a lot of mystery about them, probably the word that sums them up the best. There are a number of very good players, the young left-arm quickie [Aamer] looks good, Gul has been around, Asif is a world class bowler, Kaneria too. Mohammad Yousuf, the two Akmals - a number of very good players in their side that we will have to pay attention to. They are unpredictable, one day brilliant, another day pretty ordinary. We have to make sure they have more ordinary days than brilliant ones over the next few weeks."