Politics should not be allowed to intrude into cricket

The World Cup has got underway and it will be cricket, and one fervently, hopes nothing but cricket till its grand finale on March 23, which also happens to be Pakistan's Republic Day.

A good omen? Leading up to the start of this cricket's most sought after prize, have been events of a most unsavoury kind and we need to put them behind but not forget them entirely.

The next World Cup will be in the West Indies and who knows what the world will look like then. Certainly such matters like contracts should be settled now, and, perhaps, it should be firmly established, that politics will not be allowed to intrude into cricket.

One hopes too that the world will be a calmer place and England, Australia and New Zealand will not feel it necessary to express security concerns or try and torpedo the tournament in the developing world.

Australia has been installed as firm favourites. This is conventional wisdom. But cricket has never been a slave to conventional wisdom.

The one-day game can be a lottery and the most improbable upsets are possible, India in 1983, Australia in 1987, Pakistan in 1992, Sri Lanka in 1996 all bear testimony to the fickle nature of the game. It is a long tournament and there's many a slip between the cup and the lip.

I was interviewed by Pakistan Television and I was asked to gaze into my crystal-ball and predict the likely winner. I made the point that there are 14 teams in the tournament and only one can win.

We could safely eliminate Namibia, Netherlands, Kenya, Canada, Bangladesh and even Zimbabwe, though Zimbabwe had the capability of causing at least one upset that could deprive one of the main challengers of vital points. That left Australia, South Africa, Pakistan, India, West Indies, England and New Zealand in the fray. Any one of these teams could win the World Cup though England, West Indies and New Zealand looked less likely.

Pakistan, I feel, has no outstanding chance. It is being described as "the most dangerous" team. There is no doubt that Pakistan has the ability of reaching great heights but does it have the consistency?

It reached the final in 1999 but choked and Australia romped home in what turned out to be a damp squib for Pakistan supporters. But the present Pakistan team is far better one than the 1999 team and Australia, still a power-house, will be without Steve Waugh at the helm. It will make a difference. Pakistan's match against Australia will have been played when this column appears in print but it probably won't be the only time that the two teams will meet.

I was a little dismayed that in the last of practice matches, Pakistan conceded 40 extras with a proliferation of wides, as if, they were gift items. One hopes that the coach has taken serious note of this. The bowling of wides and no-balls need to be ironed out at the nets and, which, in turn means that net practice has to be taken seriously, like a war-game with live bullets.

This and the fielding generally needs to be tightened up. But Pakistan is a well-balanced side and was picked studiously and well received by Pakistan's cricket and even the professional, 'carpers' had little to say by way of criticism.

India is the other team that looks good. It certainly has the batting and Srinath's inclusion strengthens the seam attack. The general feeling is that given the nature of South African wickets, it will be a fast bowlers World Cup. I don't agree. Both Saqlain Mushtaq and Harbhajan Singh will profit from the extra bounce, as will Shane Warne and spinners will have their role to play.

The World Cup is a marriage between commercial greed and national pride. More so in India and some of the commercials that I have seen on television appear to me as if national pride has been privatised. India will feel the pressure of this hype, and of the expectations. But the greatest pressure will be on South Africa, the host. No host country has won the World Cup. Shaun Pollock says that records are meant to be broken. He means the jinx. South Africa blew its chances in 1999. They will be mindful of this.

Their match-winner Lance Klusener is lucky to have made the squad. The key, however will be Jacques Kallis, and it will be around him that South Africa will make its challenge. South Africa is a definite contender and has the home advantage. But it's too early to call and there is the weather factor and Duckworth & Lewis, the Pythagoras theorem of one-day cricket, beyond the understanding of mortals.