Runs in store at Headingley

Despite outplaying Australia at Lord's and being the only side that could win at Edgbaston, Sporting Index's confidence in England in this Ashes series is a bit like Andrew Flintoff's knee ahead of the fourth Test at Headingley: ready to give way at any moment.

The spread betting firm are just not convinced by Andrew Strauss' side even though victory in Leeds will see the urn returned with a game to spare. They make them 9-10.5 outsiders (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, zero for a defeat) with Australia 12.5-14. Those prices are identical to the ones chalked up before the Lord's Test, pertinent because Australia, of course, had not lost at that venue since 1934. It betrays a lack of faith in the home team.

In fairness it is probably justified. While the patriotic will hark back to 1981 and all that, the punter, a cold beast, will point to England's horrible record on the ground: it is their second least successful home venue with a win loss-ratio of 1.42.

Add into the mix a familiar selection conundrum at Leeds with doubts over Flintoff and who should replace him (or who should be drafted in for ballast with Jonathan Trott, Steve Harmison and Ryan Sidebottom in the mix) and the mind goes back not to the halcyon days of Sir Ian Botham 28 years ago but doomed picks like Darren Pattinson last summer against South Africa or poor Mike Smith in 1997 against the Australians.

Of course both men were swing bowlers who were supposed to bend it around corners on a ground which was supposed to help them. And as bettors it would be easy to hang all of our wagers for this Test on such a hook. Try not to, though. Matthew Hoggard, the Yorkshire bowler and former England swing man, has played down Headingley's help for the bowlers and the statistics back it up.

Unlike Edgbaston we should not fear getting with batsmen on a wicket which has been as flat as any in the world in recent years. Hell, India scored 628 there in 2002 and their batsmen are hardly renowned for their adeptness at playing the moving ball. For proof of runs one needs only to look at the first innings scores in Tests since 2000: 203, 570, 515, 409, 342, 628, 447, 172.

The average is 410, six runs higher than that renowned batting paradise Lord's over its last 10 Tests. In the last eight Tests there have been an impressive 18 centuries which will alert bettors to the ton-ups quote for the match, which stands at 73-80 as well as those for individual batsmen. The average make-up over our study period is 98.

So which batsmen should punters look to get with? Not many of England's that's for sure given their far from impressive averages on the ground. Andrew Strauss averages 38 (his match runs are 77-84), Alastair Cook 32 (70-77), Ian Bell 32 (63-70) and Paul Collingwood 28 (60-67). The one that stands out is Matt Prior who averages 80 in first-class cricket and 75 in one Test. His runs are available at 55-62 and he may also be worth a buy on the England wicket-keeper's performance.

Ricky Ponting's runs are consistently bought wherever he is playing, which often means his price is artificially too high. But there could be justification for such a trade this time. He averages a whopping 114 at Headingley with two centuries and one 50 there in the past.

Faith in batsmen is also acceptable because of the strike rates of some of the bowlers on show, although do bear in mind that before one starts shorting bowling indices (10 points for a wicket, 25-point bonus for five-wicket haul) like crazy, any cloud cover immediately reduces value.

James Anderson, who could be a popular buy at 43, has a strike rate of 93, Stuart Broad 180 (28-33) and Flintoff 93 (30-35). Flintoff's performance quote for the Test is 110-118 (1 point per run, 10 per catch, and 20 per wicket) and given that figure above, a batting average of 28, an average make-up of 94 and the knee injury which could hinder his involvement a sell could be warranted, let alone a lack of confidence in the hosts.