South Africa more in need of win

England have surprised everyone - including themselves I am sure - by their consistency in the one-day series and stand just one match away from a rare series win as they prepare for the fifth and final one-dayer in South Africa on Friday

Simon Cambers

18-Nov-2009

Kevin Pietersen pulls, England v India, ICC World Twenty20 Super Eights, Lord's, June 14, 2009

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South Africa showed their class in the one win they managed when they completely outclassed England but in the other two completed matches, they have underperformed and now stand on the verge of a humbling home series defeat.

England are a far better Test side than they are one-day outfit so from their point of view it will be a massive boost, really no matter what happens in the last match, as the onus is on South Africa to find the win to secure a 2-2 series draw.

Bet365 make them 8/13 to do it, though, and I have to say I'd be surprised if they didn't. They remain the better side and though England, who are 13/10, are capable of good things on their day, it'd be a surprise if they manage a third win.

That said, South Africa will have to get their act together in terms of their batting if they are to win the match for they crumbled horribly in match four. Captain Graeme Smith and AB De Villiers are joint-favourites at 10/3 to top-score in Durban, where South Africa's recent one-day record is actually not that great, with only eight wins and five losses in their last 17.

Herschelle Gibbs, who needs a good innings to impress, and Hashim Amla are 4/1, while Alviro Pietersen is 9/2, JP Duminy 5/1, Albie Morkel 10/1 and Mark Boucher 12/1.

The ever-impressive Jonathan trott and his captain Andrew Strauss are joint-favourite to top-score for England at 10/3. Kevin Pietersen, who is due a big knock, is next at 7/2, while the in-form Paul Collingwood is 5/1, alongside Alastair Cook (who surely won't play) and Joe Denly.

England could easily win this one given the way the series has gone, but South Africa's need is the greater and that should inspire them to produce a far improved performance. If they do that, it should be too good for England.

Cambers' Call
South Africa to beat England in 5th one-day international - 8/13 bet365

Original preview
The five-match one-day international series between South Africa and England begins on Friday with the home side overwhelming favourites. England will be boosted by the return of Kevin Pietersen and the emergence of Jonathan Trott and may not be quite as hapless at this form of the game than they have been of late
To be quite honest, England are still a very average one-day side, even with those two in the line-up, but at least their presence means they are capable of winning the odd match in a series. Captain Andrew Strauss is also in fine form and in Paul Collingwood they have good back-up while the bowling attack is okay.
However, in the past three years, England have lost more matches than they have won. Interestingly their overall record is similar away from home as it is when they are hosts, but don't let that mislead you. In terms of series won (when there were at least three games), they have managed five wins out of 12, with just two of them coming away.
It is asking an awful lot for them to beat a South Africa side that still excels at this form of cricket, even if things tend to go wrong for them in the major tournaments. Bet365 make them 1/3 to win it, while England are 12/5.
But as I mentioned early on, it might not be quite as one-sided as it might seem at first glance and bet365 agree for the favourite correct score outcome is a 3-2 win for the South Africans, which is on offer at 2/1.
It's 11/5 that Graeme Smith's men win 4-1 and just 5-1 that they win all five matches. England are 7/2 to nick it by the odd game, 3-2, while they are 14/1 to win it 4-1 and a massive 50-1 to complete a whitewash.
In the past two years, South Africa have won 17 and lost just five of their 22 one-dayers at home so you get a sense of the enormity of England's task even before we break down their line-up.
Same old same old
One day I won't have to keep writing this sentence but for now it still stands. England do not know how to pace an innings. Unlike almost every other international team of any note, including South Africa, where Smith fulfils this role, England's openers are their weakness.
Never do they set a match alight with their bold, attacking nature. Instead, they still seem to think that conserving wickets early on is the key to a big score. It isn't. The secret is to make a fast start and go from there, rather than trying to build a score and then getting bogged down.
Until they make an enterprising decision and put someone like Pietersen or Trott at the top of the order, nothing is going to change, even if Strauss is batting with a lot of confidence right now. I still don't know why Alastair Cook is in the one-day side - in 23 matches, he averages 30 and has just one hundred to his name, which for an opener is simply not good enough.
However, despite this, Strauss, Pietersen, Trott and Collingwood, backed up by Matt Prior, make up a reasonable batting line-up, while if tey are fit, James Anderson, Stuart Broad and Graeme Swann are a good start to a bowling attack.
South Africa have home advantage but apart from their woeful Twenty20 efforts, England have made a decent start to the tour and I can see them winning one, maybe two of the matches, even if taking the series is likely to be beyond them.
Top runs and wickets
Captain Smith is a worthy favourite to top-score for South Africa in the series at 5/2, just ahead of the ever superb Jacques Kallis at 3/1. Smith is in excellent form already and gets the nod for me, even if the likes of JP Duminy, at 9/2, could be a threat.
Pietersen tops the betting for England at 5/2 but he has played very little cricket for a while now and although he is well capable of a century along the line, Strauss looks better value at 3/1.
Joe Denly, Trott and Collingwood are all 11/2, while Eoin Morgan is 7/1, Cook 8/1 and Prior 10/1. Cook's price almost proves my point in itself and I would far rather go with Prior than him, especially if England took a chance for once and made him open.
Dale Steyn is the 2/1 favourite to be South Africa's leading wicket-taker and with doubts about the rest of the line-up, he seems to be the obvious choice. Anderson is favourite for England at 9/4 while Broad is 11/4 but with both men struggling to shake off knocks, Swann at 4/1 and even Graham Onions at 6/1, could come good.
Whatever you do, don't back Saj Mahmood to come out on top because it's not going to happen and frankly he is not good enough to be there.
Cambers' Call
South Africa to win ODI series against England - 1/3 bet365
South Africa to win ODI series 4-1 against England - 11/5 bet365
Graeme Smith to be South Africa's leading series runscorer - 3/1 bet365
Andrew Strauss to be England's leading series runscorer - 3/1 bet365
Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is Cricinfo's betting correspondent