Spreads could prove lucrative

As you would expect for an Ashes series, Sporting Index have come up with more markets than you have the time to examine. From a batsman's series runs to player performance and their famous specials, they have just about everything covered.

The first market to look at is the one concerning an individual batsmen's runs. Before I start, a word of caution. I had my fingers burned pretty badly four years ago when I decided to sell Matthew Hayden's runs at 400, part of my rationale being that 400 was too high for anyone, let alone Hayden.

However, my nerves turned to sheer pain as he amassed 197 in the first innings of the first Test. From then on, there was no way back, so be very sure before you act.

Having said that, it is a little strange to see his runs at 405-425 this time round, mainly because he is not quite in the superlative form he was this time four years ago. However, he is capable of a massive knock and with no Simon Jones, I'd be relucant to get involved either way.

Australia captain Ricky Ponting tops the list with 450-470, which again seems high until you remember that he has been known to smash emormous aggregates at times - including more than 700 against India a couple of years ago in just four Tests. He is always vulnerable early in his innings and there is a fair bit of pressure on him to regain the Ashes for Australia, but he is too good to oppose.

Sporting's quote of 280-300 on Adam Gilchrist looks interesting. The left-hander had a miserable series last summer but appeared to be back in form at the recent Champions Trophy. In three Ashes series, he has scored 340, 383 and 181 runs. I find it hard to believe he will struggle again this time, especially on more favourable pitches, and there could be value in buying at 300. The one worry about buying a middle-order batsman's runs is that he may not get to bat that many times, particularly if Australia, in this case, are on top.

Making a judgement
Now this is pretty much the crux of the matter when it comes to the series spread markets. To judge whether a price is good or worth taking advantage of, you have to make a judgement and decide how the series is going to go. If you think one side, probably Australia, are going to dominate, then the chances are that they won't bat twice every time, at least not all the way down.

This is very important, but readers of the site will know that one of my favourite spread markets, Tails of the Unexpected, can actually go the other way. The market - awarding one point per run of Nos 8, 9, 10 and 11 for one side through the series - is partly dependent on which side is on top.

Usually, the side that is struggling that bit more ends up with a higher total, which stands to reason as they almost always bat twice and therefore have more opportunities to make runs. But last summer's Ashes series showed that it is not always the case. Australia lost the series, yes, but their tail actually wagged way more than England's, even though they had about the same number of innings.

Even when a side is in control, the confidence that brings can stem right down through a side and there is no question that on paper this time, as last summer, Australia have the better tail, with Shane Warne and Brett Lee in the bottom four.

This time Australia's price is 305-325, while England's is 245-265. If Monty Panesar plays, which looks unlikely in the first Test, England's tail is mightily long, beginning with Matthew Hoggard at eight, averaging around 4 against Australia. The prices seem about right, but if anything I'd be tempted to buy Australia's at 325 as it only takes one or two big innings to push the price up and allow you the chance to take an early profit.

Who will be stumped?
One other interesting market is Sporting's Stop at a stumping. Awarding 10 points per match without a stumping, they have priced it up as 23-26. If you think there will be one early on, then you need it to happen in the first two Tests to make money, while if you don't, and you buy at 26, you don't want to see one before the third Test if you're to make profit.

Now looking back at the past 10 Tests at both Brisbane and Adelaide - venues for the first two matches - makes interesting reading.

In Brisbane, there has been a stumping in five of the past 10 while in Adelaide, it's seven in 10. That's 12 in 20, or 60%, which, applied to a five-Test series, would suggest that in terms of probability there should be one in the first two matches.

Obviously, it depends a little on the protagonists but while Warne and probably Ashley Giles will shoulder the bowling in the first Test, the dusty Adelaide track could see each side playing two spinners, which would increase the chances of a stumping.

For the record, Warne has had 34 stumpings out of 685 victims, while Stuart MacGill, who looks certain to join him in the side for Adelaide, is even more dangerous as he spins the ball so much.

If there is no stumping in the series, the maximum loss for sellers at 23 would be 37 times your stake so obviously bear the downside in mind, but I would be surprised if we don't see one at least in Adelaide and possibly in Brisbane.