Sri Lanka take over favouritism

Three matches into the Tri Nations series and we're none the wiser with Sri Lanka, India and New Zealand all having registered one win and one loss.

Bet365, though, have read something into the early encounters, with the original favourites, India, replaced by Sri Lanka at the top of the betting. The home side are now 11/8, with India 6/4 and New Zealand still the outsiders at 3/1.

Now India may have made a mess of their clash with New Zealand but the Black Caps are well below full strength and I think we'll still see a final between them and Sri Lanka come the end of the six round-robin matches.

India have too much forepower not to get through and Sri Lanka have home advantage and some decent form to rely on, so the top two should get through and then, to be quite honest, it is likely to be absolutely 50-50.

Original preview
No rest for the wicked, it seems, as India, Sri Lanka and New Zealand meet up for a Tri Nations Series of one-day internationals in Dambulla, beginning on Tuesday.

Each side plays each other twice before the top two progress to the final and though India and Sri Lanka have seen plenty of each other recently, coming off the just-finished 1-1 draw in a Test series, New Zealand should be fresh and will fancy their chances of upsetting the top two in the betting.

Bet365 make India narrow favourites to win it, at 11/10, while Sri Lanka are 6/5 and New Zealand are the rank outsiders at 11/2. But the Black Caps are a more than decent one-day side and though this is their first one-day series in five months, this is anyone's to win.

With so little to choose between the sides, on paper at least, the toss could prove crucial in almost every match for sides batting first should have a big advantage because batting second under the Dambulla floodlights is notoriously difficult, even if the stats for sides batting first and second are fairly even.

Sri Lanka do have home advantage and in some ways they might have expected to be favourites, but the absence of Muttiah Muralitharan reduces the effectiveness of their bowling attack, as it would to the attack of any side. Suraj Randiv, Ajantha Mendis and Rangana Herath will all push for a permanent place as a spinner so expect them to play well.

Perhaps the real reason for India's favouritism is history. In four visits to Sri Lanka, MS Dhoni has taken his India team to four tournament wins. However, with Sachin Tendulkar, Gautam Gambhir and Harbhajan Singh rested and Zaheer Khan still not fit, they are not quite at full strength.

Ashish Nehra and Praveen Kumar will boost a bowling attack that struggled against Sri Lanka in the recent Tests, while much of the emphasis will be placed on how well their twin left-arm spin attack performs.

New Zealand can be relied upon to get the best out of their team, even if on paper, their individuals may not stack up against the opposition. However, with captain Daniel Vettori, Brendon McCullum and Jesse Ryder missing, it is hard to see them having the nous and experience to get the job done.

It is going to be a tight affair - these things so often are - but with the likes of Virender Sehwag and Yuvraj in ther ranks, India may just have too much firepower for the rest, with Dhoni looking to make it title No 5 in Sri Lanka.