The Hundred play-off scenarios: Six men's teams competing for two spots
There is a three-way battle for a confirmed spot in the women's final
Sampath Bandarupalli
21-Aug-2023
Oval Invincibles are the only men's team with a confirmed spot in the knockouts • ECB via Getty Images
Ahead of the final round of league matches, only Oval Invincibles have sealed a place in the play-offs from the men's competition. The remaining two spots are up for grabs between six teams, as only Birmingham Phoenix are mathematically out of the race.
The women's competition, however, has the playoff spots decided with Southern Brave, Northern Superchargers and Welsh Fire now battling for the chance to play the final directly.
The men's and women's eliminators, between the teams finishing second and third in the group stages, will take place at The Oval on August 26 (Saturday). The winners of the eliminators will then face the teams who finish first in the group stages at Lord's in the finals on Agusut 27 (Sunday).
Men's tournament
Oval Invincibles - Wins 5, Points 11
Oval Invincibles stand on the top of the table, leading second-placed Manchester Originals by two points. However, Originals have a better net-run-rate (NRR) than Invincibles. If Invincibles register a win against the Trent Rockets on Monday, they will directly qualify for the final.
However, a defeat would mean they would rely on a favour from Southern Brave to defeat Originals, who would climb to the top via NRR if they won.
Manchester Originals - Wins 4, Points 9
Manchester Originals have a chance of qualifying for the final directly if they beat Southern Brave in the last match, as long as Trent Rockets do them a favour by defeating Oval Invincibles on Monday. Despite being close to a direct final qualification, Originals are not yet confirmed of their play-off berth as they could fall as low as fifth if results go against them.
Manchester Originals have a chance of qualifying for the final directly if they beat Southern Brave in the last match, as long as Trent Rockets do them a favour by defeating Oval Invincibles on Monday. Despite being close to a direct final qualification, Originals are not yet confirmed of their play-off berth as they could fall as low as fifth if results go against them.
Though Originals have the best NRR among the eight teams in the men's competition, they could finish below Southern Brave if they lose to them by a margin of around 42 runs. If that happens, Rockets will also finish ahead of the Originals on NRR irrespective of their win margin against Invincibles.
Though Welsh Fire are behind Originals on NRR by more than 100 runs, they can also move ahead of Originals - if Brave defeat Originals by 42 runs and Fire win against the Northern Superchargers by around 62 runs.
If Rockets beat Invincibles on Monday, Originals have to make sure they don't lose by more than 41 runs to Brave and hope Welsh Fire can't catch them on the NRR. And if Rockets lose on Monday, Originals will be confirmed to finish in the top three if they can ensure their losing margin against Brave is less than 42 runs.
Trent Rockets - Wins 3, Points 7
Trent Rockets will more or less seal their place in the playoffs with a win against Invincibles on Monday. However, there is a chance they could miss out despite finishing with nine points - but they could qualify for playoffs even with a loss against Invincibles. For that to happen, they need Southern Brave, Welsh Fire and London Spirit to lose their last matches.
Trent Rockets will more or less seal their place in the playoffs with a win against Invincibles on Monday. However, there is a chance they could miss out despite finishing with nine points - but they could qualify for playoffs even with a loss against Invincibles. For that to happen, they need Southern Brave, Welsh Fire and London Spirit to lose their last matches.
Rockets must ensure they don't lose by more than 45 runs, as any margin higher than that would push them below Brave's current NRR. And in case Rockets lose by 75 runs to Invincibles, they will need the following results:
a. Brave lose to Originals by at least 31 runs.
b. Welsh Fire to lose by at least 13 runs against Superchargers. But Superchargers shouldn't win by more than 43 runs.
a. Brave lose to Originals by at least 31 runs.
b. Welsh Fire to lose by at least 13 runs against Superchargers. But Superchargers shouldn't win by more than 43 runs.
At the same time, the Rockets could still miss out on a top-three finish, despite a modest win by 15 runs. The following results, if they occur, could see the Rockets miss out on playoffs even after a 15-run win:
a. Brave to beat Originals by 58 runs, Originals do not lose by more than 26 runs.
b. Fire beat Superchargers by 79 runs
a. Brave to beat Originals by 58 runs, Originals do not lose by more than 26 runs.
b. Fire beat Superchargers by 79 runs
Southern Brave - Wins 3, Points 7
Southern Brave, the 2021 champions, could miss out on the playoffs for the second straight season if they lose to Originals in their last league match. Although, just a win might not be enough for Brave as they would need to win by at least 42 runs against Originals to move past them on NRR. Trent Rockets are likely to finish ahead of Brave if they win against Invincibles, while Welsh Fire could also catch up with a big win.
Southern Brave, the 2021 champions, could miss out on the playoffs for the second straight season if they lose to Originals in their last league match. Although, just a win might not be enough for Brave as they would need to win by at least 42 runs against Originals to move past them on NRR. Trent Rockets are likely to finish ahead of Brave if they win against Invincibles, while Welsh Fire could also catch up with a big win.
Scenarios for Brave if they win:
1. Brave, Rockets and Fire win: Brave's margin of win against Originals should be either 43 runs higher than Rockets' win margin against Invincibles or within 17 runs of Welsh Fire's margin against Superchargers.
2. Brave win by less than 42 runs: Rockets should lose to Invincibles, and Brave's win margin should not be less than 16 runs of Fire's margin against Superchargers.
1. Brave, Rockets and Fire win: Brave's margin of win against Originals should be either 43 runs higher than Rockets' win margin against Invincibles or within 17 runs of Welsh Fire's margin against Superchargers.
2. Brave win by less than 42 runs: Rockets should lose to Invincibles, and Brave's win margin should not be less than 16 runs of Fire's margin against Superchargers.
Brave, in fact, could end up in the play-offs even with a defeat - but that requires Rockets to suffer a big defeat as they are currently about 40 runs ahead of Brave on NRR. They would also need London Spirit and Welsh Fire to lose their respective matches, and at the same time, Northern Superchargers should defeat Fire by a handsome margin which could see them overhauling Brave's NRR. If Brave lose by 20 runs to Originals, the only way Superchargers can go ahead is with a win as big as 50 runs.
Welsh Fire - Wins 3, Points 7
Welsh Fire have won three of their seven completed matches this year, the same they won across the first two seasons combined. But they would need more than just a win in their last match to be assured of a place in the play-offs. They are currently 60 runs behind on NRR of Trent Rockets and about 19 runs behind Brave, the other two teams likely to end up with nine points.
Welsh Fire have won three of their seven completed matches this year, the same they won across the first two seasons combined. But they would need more than just a win in their last match to be assured of a place in the play-offs. They are currently 60 runs behind on NRR of Trent Rockets and about 19 runs behind Brave, the other two teams likely to end up with nine points.
If the Rockets win, then Welsh Fire's win margin against Superchargers must be beyond 60 runs. If the Rockets lose, then Welsh's fate relies on the margin in the Originals-Brave match.
A loss for Welsh Fire could make things complicated for them with already a poor NRR. In addition to Rockets and Brave's defeats, Fire would also need London Spirit to lose as they could finish with eight points. Fire would also face a potential threat from their opponent of the last game Northern Superchargers, who will end with seven points but have a poorer NRR.
London Spirit - Wins 3, Points 6
London Spirit, unlike the remaining teams in contention, won't have the NRR headache. All they need to qualify is for Rockets, Brave and Fire to lose their last matches and finish with seven points. If that happens, Spirit, who face Phoenix in the final league match, must win to seal the third place.
London Spirit, unlike the remaining teams in contention, won't have the NRR headache. All they need to qualify is for Rockets, Brave and Fire to lose their last matches and finish with seven points. If that happens, Spirit, who face Phoenix in the final league match, must win to seal the third place.
Northern Superchargers - Wins 2, Points 5
Four consecutive defeats pushed Superchargers to seventh in the points table and left a heavy dent in their NRR. However, they still have an outside chance of making it to the play-offs. For that to happen, they would need to defeat Welsh Fire in their last league match and expect the results in all three other matches to work their way - Rockets, Brave and Spirit to lose.
Four consecutive defeats pushed Superchargers to seventh in the points table and left a heavy dent in their NRR. However, they still have an outside chance of making it to the play-offs. For that to happen, they would need to defeat Welsh Fire in their last league match and expect the results in all three other matches to work their way - Rockets, Brave and Spirit to lose.
That would still not be enough for Superchargers due to their NRR, as they would need nearly 115 runs to cover between them and Trent Rockets, who have the best NRR of the teams likely to finish with seven points. If the Superchargers win by 75 runs against Fire after the Rockets suffer a 40-run defeat to Invincibles, they will end up with the best NRR among the teams with 7 points and finish third.
Women's tournament
Southern Brave (12 points) are best placed for the direct route to the final, as a win against Manchester Originals (11 points) in their last league match would be enough for them. However, they can earn it even with a narrow defeat against Originals if Superchargers also secure a close win against Welsh Fire (10 points) on Tuesday.
Brave and Superchargers are separated by more than 20 runs on NRR ahead of the last round of the league phase. Welsh Fire would need to beat Superchargers and hope Brave lose against Originals on Wednesday to finish as the table-topper.
Brave will be in a must-win situation on Wednesday if Fire defeat Superchargers, or Superchargers beat Fire by about 22 runs, or with around 16 balls to spare.
Sampath Bandarupalli is a statistician at ESPNcricinfo