The numbers point England's way

Can England go ahead and convert their momentum in the ongoing series into their first Ashes victory since 1986-87? Comparing the current series stats with historical data provides some interesting pointers, and most of them suggest that England might finally break Australia's stranglehold on the Ashes.

The rate at which England's bowlers have taken wickets and scored their runs speak of a confident, aggressive team - adjectives which could not have suited England teams of the past. In the three Tests so far, England have scored at 4.01 runs per over. It's easily their highest scoring rate against Australia, and is in fact the fourth-best in all Ashes clashes.

Best run-rates in Ashes series
Team	Year and host	Run-rate	Series winner
Australia	2001, England	4.27	Australia
Australia	2002-03, Australia	4.10	Australia
Australia	1946-47, Australia	4.05	Australia
England	2005, England	4.01	?
Australia	2005, England	3.87	?

(excludes one-off Tests)

England's run-rate is also easily the best among all teams which have played Australia since 1999-2000, when the Australians began their 16-match winning streak. England take the second spot as well, their 2001 effort nudging just ahead of India's display in that memorable series in 2003-04.

This is also the first time England have scored their runs quicker than Australia since 1986-87, which was the last time England secured the Ashes. In the last 19 years, the team scoring faster has also been winning the Ashes. It certainly suggests that if England continue to outscore the Aussies, they'll have the Ashes in their grasp in a couple of week's time.

Meanwhile, England's bowlers have been doing their job splendidly too. They've been taking a wicket every 49.66 balls, which is their best against Australia since 1912. Even more surprisingly, no team has done better than this in the last 93 years (excluding one-off Tests).

England's best strike-rates v Australia
Year	Strike rate
1888	23.00
1886-87	38.33
1886	40.52
1902	41.50
1905	42.73
1896	42.96
1890	44.03
1893	44.22
1903-04	47.54
1912	48.59
2005	49.66

(excludes one-off Tests)

Australia's problems have largely been with their batting, and it has started at the top of their order: Matthew Hayden and Justin Langer have only been averaging 30.33 for the opening wicket in this series; over their entire career (before the current series), the corresponding number was an extremely impressive 55.81. The lack of a substantial opening stand has gone a long way in ensuring that Australia haven't dominated with the bat like they normally do.

Along with their openers, the middle order has struggled too. Their top seven batsmen have, on an average, scored only 224 runs per innings. That effort ranks No. 30 in Australia's all-time list in series against England. The last time the two sides played - in 2002-03 - the contribution from the first seven batsmen was a healthy 312, which ranked No. 4 in that list.

Despite an almost non-existent third seamer, Australia's bowlers have still managed to take a wicket every 45.38 balls, that's even better than England's effort. However, the rate at which England have scored has almost completely offset that advantage. Australia's batsmen still edge the runs per wicket stat 31.08 to 29.43, but gap has narrowed significantly since the first Test.