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To chase or not to chase?

The conundrum facing South Africa's batsmen on the final day of the second Test is pretty simple. Do they chase Australia's massive target of 410 and risk mistakes, or do they batten down the hatches and play for the draw

Simon Cambers
22-Mar-2006


Shane Warne could have a big role to play on day five © Getty Images
The conundrum facing South Africa's batsmen on the final day of the second Test is pretty simple. Do they chase Australia's massive target of 410 and risk mistakes, or do they batten down the hatches and play for the draw.
Bet365, it seems, think the home side will be doing the latter as they make the draw a 4/9 (1.44) shot, while Australia are 13/8 (2.62) and a home win - surely too much to hope for - is 50/1 (51.00).
Of course, after the way they battered a world record 436 from 50 overs to win the one-day series, nothing should be totally discounted but this is Test cricket and, unlike in the one-day decider, Australia have Shane Warne.
Warne wasn't at his best in the first Test but he has bowled superbly here and it would be just like him to take centre stage on the final day. Scoting 400 plus to win a Test on day five is hard enough, but when Warne is around, surely it's impossible.
Captain Graeme Smith, who has 10 to his name, is 5/6 (1.83) to get 41 or more, while AB de Villiers, not out 17, is the same price, also to get to 41 or better.
Please note that odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.

Simon Cambers is Cricinfo's betting correspondent