Value now lies with New Zealand

Miracle of miracles, England managed to win a one-day match. A cynical person might think that it suits the organisers perfectly as it keeps the five-match series alive but don't let one win fool you, England's one-day form is still terrible and they will do exceedingly well to go on to win the series.

This is the problem with one-day cricket, for me. In Test cricket, when one side is much better than the other, they will almost always win. In one-day cricket, it is much more of a lottery.

Does momentum matter? If it does, then England should win the fourth one-dayer, to be played on Tuesday night British time. But it doesn't seem to make much difference, when you look back down the years, so what do you do?

Bet365 make England favourites to win the fourth one-dayer, at 8/13 (1.61) while New Zealand are 6/5, which immediately looks good value.

England were totally pathetic in the first two games and though they obviously performed better on Friday, what's to say that the relief of winning a match won't just allow them to slip back into their old ways.

They still don't know what to do at the top of the order - it's so obvious to me that just writing the words is painful. Attack the first few overs to take the advantage and then you have all options open; go slowly at first and you are already under pressure. How they miss Marcus Trescothick.

Kevin Pietersen is the favourite to be England's top runscorer in the match, at 3/1, having finally made some runs on Friday. Ian Bell, who looked in good form, and Alastair Cook are both 4/1, while Phil Mustard and captain Paul Collingwood, their hero on Friday, are both 11/2.

For New Zealand, Brendon McCullum is favourite at 3/1, with Jess Ryder 7/2 and Ross Taylor 4/1. Scott Styris is 9/2, while Jacob Oram, who top-scored with 88 on Friday, is shorter than usual at 6/1.

At the odds, I would have to say New Zealand will win this one, but once again, nothing would surprise me.