South Africa's impending freelancer problem

It is the year 2020. Kagiso Rabada has played for Sydney Sixers, Delhi Daredevils and Jamaica Tallawahs and is deciding between a return to Kent or making himself available for South Africa for a Test match. Rabada has not played for his country since 2018, in the World T20. He sat out 2019 because he chose the Pakistan Super League instead.

You've heard these kinds of scenarios before, and perhaps you've even started to believe they will come to exist, especially if you are a follower of South African cricket.

Why them in particular?

With some of the most celebrated names in the game - think AB de Villiers, Hashim Amla, Dale Steyn - and a team that has until recently occupied top spot in Test cricket and hovered around there in ODIs, their players are in demand in T20 leagues and at home, and they increasingly have reasons to favour the former.

While T20 leagues offer US dollar income and freedom from politics, playing for South Africa means being paid in declining rands, and a responsibility to nation-building, which involves buying into CSA's aggressive transformation policy. The word from some former players is that the more valuable currency and the gigs with less baggage are likely to win out, despite the fierce loyalties bred through the South African school system that make players second-guess themselves.

One former player told ESPNcricinfo that money will be "80%" to blame for the exodus. International player body FICA's 2016 report painted a financial picture that showed the disparity that exists between centrally contracted national players and T20 mercenaries everywhere except in England and Australia (and presumably India, but their players do not have a union and so are not included in FICA reviews). A player who is part of three domestic T20 leagues a year takes home an average of $510,000. Cricket South Africa ($346,494), Sri Lanka Cricket ($234,500), New Zealand Cricket ($231,000), the West Indies Cricket Board ($225,625) and the Bangladesh Cricket Board ($67,935) all pay their players much less.

For South Africans, whose currency has devalued 30% against the US dollar in the last 12 months, the monetary lure of earning foreign currency is too good to turn down. In a column for SA Cricket magazine in February, former Test opener Alviro Petersen he predicted that South Africa could lose their best players in 18-24 months.

At the time Petersen used himself as an example. He was denied a no-objection certificate to play in the Masters Champions League because his South African franchise, Lions, wanted him to honour his contract with them. Petersen underlined what that cost him. "I could have earned what the Lions pay me in a year for just two and a half weeks at the MCL," he wrote. "We might see some players decide to play Big Bash rather than play a Test series in December. This is reality! Watch this space…"

As it turns out, several sources have confirmed two of South Africa's top bowlers are considering exactly that. The Big Bash coincides with South Africa's home series against Sri Lanka and there is an expectation of high-profile retirements from international cricket ahead of that.

Money, though, will not be those players' only reason for going. It is fast becoming an open secret in South Africa that the implementation of the transformation policy, which CSA is vehemently adhering to in a bid to have its ministerial ban against hosting major tournaments lifted, is causing players to question their commitment. Several players and administrators confirmed that the uncertainty around the application of the policy is causing concern (though none was willing to speak on the record about an issue that is sensitive and controversial and has cost people jobs).

CSA maintains that there is no target at national level but has signed a memorandum of understanding with the sports ministry that requires it to field, at domestic level, teams that contain six players of colour, of which at least three must be black African. This has presented franchises and provincial teams with conundrums over the balance of their sides, but many coaches feel they are starting to settle into the new structure. However, at national level it gets more complicated, and a number of centrally contracted players are understood to be looking for options abroad because they feel they are being marginalised by the targets.

Even for the rest, playing cricket for the national side is losing its appeal. FICA's CEO, Tony Irish, told ESPNcricinfo that bilateral international cricket as a product, and as an experience for players, is struggling because players want "big crowds, close contests and matches that have context and sporting narrative". T20 leagues offer all of those things and in a shorter time frame than international cricket, which is a factor, especially for players who have families, as Irish points out.

That is where many of South Africa's stars find themselves at the moment, with young children and partners who spend months living out of suitcases, and it has taken its toll on their performance. National coach Russell Domingo cited overwork as the main reason the team was unable to qualify for the final of the Caribbean triangular series this June. By the time they got there, some of them had come through their busiest summer season in recent memory, which included eight Tests, a World T20 and an IPL. Others then went straight from the West Indies tour into the CPL, and they will go from that into Tests against New Zealand and ODIs against Australia at home.

The Australia fixtures, in particular, are an example of the kinds of matches that lack context. It is not too difficult to imagine players pulling out of that and other limited-overs series unless they can be persuaded to play on.

That has already happened with Morne Morkel, who is understood to have been seriously considering retiring from limited-overs cricket after being left out of the World T20 squad. He was even due to play for Glamorgan over the South African winter. But he was included in the national squad to the West Indies - where he was only included in two out of six starting XIs - and convinced not to call it a day.

Morkel is not the only one. Last season was dominated by reports of de Villiers pondering early retirement. De Villiers admitted there was "a little bit of truth" to the talk and spent several press conferences discussing the need for a more flexible schedule. In fact, he only recommitted fully to South African cricket after he was made permanent Test captain at the end of the England Test series.

Several other former players saw that as a dangerous sign that some players are becoming too powerful. "These players know the system needs them and they know they can use that to their advantage. They can make threats about wanting to walk away, so in the end they get what they want," one said.

In effect, South African cricket could end up being held to ransom by its headliners, and the cricket economy is such that there is little anyone can do to stop that.

The South African Cricketers' Association remains of the view that "international cricket should still be the pinnacle for players", but tempers that with a cautionary clause. "This needs to be balanced against also giving players some freedom to participate in vibrant T20 Leagues."

Irish feels that South African players have, up to now, been "pretty loyal to the country cause" but that "one can't expect the best players in the world - and again this applies in all countries - to blindly commit to the country loyalty when there are more and more games without context and more and more one-sided matches played in half-empty stadia, when in the other market it's the opposite." He, along with his FICA colleagues, is pushing for a restructure of bilateral international cricket.

Until that happens, South Africa's administrators will have to continue to find ways to be flexible. They have already showed some signs that they are, at all levels. Dale Steyn was given an NOC to play in the NatWest T20 Blast during South African's West Indies tour, though the official line was that he was supposed to be resting. In the women's game Dane van Niekerk, Shabnim Ismail, Marizanne Kapp and Lizelle Lee will miss South Africa's tour of Ireland because they were given permission to play in England's Super League T20. CSA has recognised that for players to commit to a low-paying national cause, they have to be allowed to capitalise elsewhere, but they may also be hoping that international cricket realises the need to move towards a more football-like model before the players move it there themselves.