Tearing up the script

It's always the same in England-South Africa series. Just when you think you've got the script nailed, it gets dispatched off to Hollywood for a glamorous makeover, and all your pre-series plotlines are scattered to the wind.

In 1994, South won a famous victory at Lord's by the not-inconsiderable margin of 356 runs, and were well set to wrap up the series at The Oval, only for Fanie de Villiers to aim that injudicious bouncer at Devon Malcolm's head. Two years later at Cape Town, however, Malcolm was the scapegoat, as the last pair of Dave Richardson and Paul Adams belted South Africa to an unassailable lead in a low-scoring decider.

And then of course, there was the 1998 series. This time, South Africa were one-up and cruising in the third Test, and, as Tim de Lisle wrote in the following year's Wisden, it was England who were "clinging to a precipice, in a hurricane, by one finger, while the baddie [took] leisurely aim, from a sheltered vantage-point, with an automatic weapon." Not only did South Africa muff the shot, they allowed Robert Croft, Darren Gough and the No. 11 Angus Fraser to haul themselves back from the brink and, ultimately, back into a series that they went on to win 2-1.

Leaving aside the twist of an altogether more sinister nature at Centurion in 1999-2000, it has been a fair bet that the side in command will relinquish the incentive before the series is up. The difference on this occasion, however, is that no-one is quite sure who took what out of that seesaw draw at Durban.

In the immediate aftermath of the match, they was little doubt who was more pleased with the result. "South Africa got out of jail," declared Michael Vaughan, and Graeme Smith could hardly disagree: "We got a bit lucky at the end there."

Two days and one New Year hangover later, however, there may be some reassessment taking place in both camps. England did remarkably well to haul themselves back from 139 all out on the first day, but as Jacques Kallis demonstrated and Marcus Tresothick and Andrew Strass belatedly realised, there was no need for England to have slipped into quite such a predicament in the first place.

Though he could hardly be faulted for his batting, the loss of Ashley Giles to a back spasm was a significant factor in England's conceding a first-innings lead of 193. Once the shine had gone off the new ball, England had no-one reliable to hold up an end, and so the effectiveness of the seamers was more or less halved. Giles did not bowl at his best in the second innings at Durban, but in mitigation, it was his first competitive day of bowling in more than a week, and, spasms permitting, he is sure to have a big role on a Newlands pitch that is expected to turn.

Of greater concern to England, however, is the form of Mark Butcher, and to a lesser extent, Vaughan himself, who has managed just 53 runs in his first four innings of the series. Butcher was recalled after injury ahead of Robert Key, the man who had cashed in with 221 and an unbeaten 93 not out against West Indies, but aside from an unflattering 79 at Port Elizabeth he has struggled, and the vultures must surely be circling.

Butcher himself feels a big score "is just around the corner", and for the moment he retains the faith of his captain. "Butch played well in Port Elizabeth for his 79," said Vaughan, "although since then he hasn't got many runs. But I think we've seen over the last few years that he's been a good player for us and pretty consistent." Even so, his last Test hundred came at Trent Bridge in August 2003, 16 matches ago.

The issue of back-to-back Tests is sure to raise its ugly head again, especially with England expected to field the same XI for the third match running. But no matter how much of a strain it is for England's seamers, no-one will be feeling the pinch - quite literally - like Shaun Pollock. In the closing stages at Durban, he suffered two agonising blows in consecutive balls from Steve Harmison, one on each index finger, but he was today passed fit with nothing more drastic than bruising.

But even allowing for Pollock's recovery, South Africa will still not be able to field the same team twice in two matches. Boeta Dippenaar, who struck an obdurate 110 at Port Elizabeth, has recovered from a knee injury, and takes the place of Martin van Jaarsveld, who batted with determination for his second-innings 49. Hashim Amla, who managed 1 and 0 in front of his home fans, earns a reprieve, while there could be a long-awaited debut for Charl Langeveldt, whose seven wickets for South Africa A destroyed England at Potchefstroom.

If they are honest with themselves, South Africa might well have accepted this situation at the start of the series, especially now that they believe their great escape has stolen the initiative back from England. "We are the most relaxed we've been this series," claimed Smith after a gentle early-morning workout. "We've had a nice practice here - it's a bit cooler than in Durban - but every time you arrive at the ground you have to be on the button. We hope we can get it together for five days starting tomorrow."

South Africa (probable) 1 Graeme Smith (capt), 2 Herschelle Gibbs, 3 Jacques Rudolph, 4 Jacques Kallis, 5 Boeta Dippenaar, 6 Hashim Amla, 7 AB de Villiers (wk), 8 Shaun Pollock, 9 Nicky Boje, 10 Makhaya Ntini, 11 Dale Steyn.

England (probable) 1 Marcus Trescothick, 2 Andrew Strauss, 3 Mark Butcher, 4 Michael Vaughan (capt), 5 Graham Thorpe, 6 Andrew Flintoff, 7 Geraint Jones (wk), 8 Ashley Giles, 9 Simon Jones, 10 Matthew Hoggard, 11 Steve Harmison.